Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Apr.) & Final PMI (May) April’s drop in euro-zone retail sales brought more worrying evidence of the weakness of the consumer sector even before fiscal tightening really kicks in. 3rd June 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Political risks to undermine yen further The markets are probably right to shrug off the resignation of Japan’s Prime Minister, but the fragility of the government is a serious concern given the urgent need for a credible plan to tackle the... 2nd June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Indebtedness not a big problem for the corporate sector Companies balance sheets are in a broadly healthy state, suggesting that firms can avoid the prolonged period of deleveraging facing other parts of the economy. But there are plenty of other reasons... 1st June 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Centre-right wins in Czech Republic, tough times lie ahead The recent elections in the Czech Republic appear to have produced a strong centre-right coalition, which will step up efforts at tackling the public deficit. But the looming fiscal squeeze adds to... 1st June 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Worrying early signs from Hungary’s new government Hungary’s new government has got off to a disappointing start, with early signs suggesting that economic populism will take priority over much-needed fiscal reform. 26th May 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (May) The continued rebound of small business confidence in Japan is a good example of the disconnect that sometimes happens between the worries of financial markets and reality on the ground. 26th May 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What did we learn at the US-China Dialogue? Markets have reined in even further their expectations of renminbi appreciation and are now pricing in a meagre 0.6% gain against the dollar over the next 12 months. That is surely too little. Indeed... 25th May 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus What is the outlook for S&P 500 earnings? We expect S&P 500 operating earnings per share (EPS) to increase by nearly 15% this year. While encouraging, such an outcome would come as a disappointment to many investors. According to Bloomberg... 24th May 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs & German Ifo (May) May’s falls in the euro-zone PMI and German Ifo business surveys are slightly worrying signs, but both still point to pretty strong growth for the time being. 21st May 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Colombia elections: Reasons not to fear a Mockus victory We think that concerns that the possible election of Antanas Mockus as President of Colombia could spark a sell-off in the markets are overdone. While his unorthodox approach may cause some market... 21st May 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Where does Thailand go from here? Political unrest will continue in Thailand but we suspect that the level of instability will subside to where it was in 2006-09 when the economy was still able to perform reasonably well. We still... 20th May 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Worst case fear for Thailand diminishing The risk that the political instability is prolonged, and spreads beyond a small area of Bangkok, will stay very high for a while. Nevertheless, we continue to expect that the latest crisis will be... 17th May 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey & Bank Lending (Apr.) The surge in the main balances of Japan’s Economy Watchers Survey (EWS) in April is further evidence of a strong and increasingly broad-based recovery, consistent with our well-above consensus GDP... 13th May 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines election to bring long run market gains The new counting system was up to the job and the presidential election in the Philippines has produced a clear winner. The new government will target fiscal consolidation and measures to lift... 12th May 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Economy should not scupper the deal Whether or not the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats are able to form a stable government will depend on all sorts of issues. But we see no reason why apparent differences on economic and fiscal... 10th May 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Economy should not scupper the deal Whether or not the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats are able to form a stable government will depend on all sorts of issues. But we see no reason why apparent differences on economic and fiscal... 10th May 2010 · 1 min read
