Europe Economics Update Portuguese economy stumbles as political tensions resurge The renewed contraction in Portuguese GDP in Q4 last year underlines the fragility of the outlook for the economy. With political tensions rising and government bond yields uncomfortably high... 14th February 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Is Saudi Arabia next? Events in Egypt are unfolding quickly and further political change looks inevitable. An orderly transition of power is still possible and would ensure that the current disruption to markets in the... 2nd February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Ireland's bail-out under threat? Ireland’s next Government will push for better terms on its existing bail-out package, but it will enter discussions in a weak bargaining position. Even if it does gain major concessions there is a... 2nd February 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed's survey shows big jump in demand for business loans The Fed's latest survey of Senior Loan Officers suggests that we could see a marked turnaround in business lending this year, which would presumably boost investment and possibly even employment too... 31st January 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand political risks should fall this year Monthly indicators for December released at the end of last week and today underline that Thailand’s economy is now regaining momentum. The main threat to the economic outlook is an increase in... 31st January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Jan.) January’s EC business and consumer survey adds to evidence that the euro-zone economy has made a pretty good start to the year. But the recovery remains heavily reliant on the industrial and external... 27th January 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Jan.) Conditions faced by smaller Japanese businesses appear to have stopped deteriorating but remain more difficult than the recent peaks seen in mid-2010. What’s more, the detail of the latest survey... 26th January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Ireland's political turmoil not as disastrous as it seems Ireland’s coming general election provides hope that months of political uncertainty may be about to end. But whatever the outcome, the economy and public finances will remain in a precarious state. 24th January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Portugal's presidential election add fuel to the fire? Portugal has survived its first market tests of 2011 and resisted pressure to accept outside support. But with government bond yields still at very high levels, the Government’s struggle to go without... 21st January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jan.) January’s Ifo index echoes the upbeat tone of most of the other short-term indicators on the German economy, including the ZEW survey released earlier this week. 21st January 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam set to adjust and target lower inflation Vietnam’s National Party Congress, which closed today, is the most important set-piece meeting of the Communist Party. Comments from the top officials, to no-one’s surprise, suggest that containing... 19th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Are small businesses missing the recovery? The unexpected dip in the NFIB gauge of small business optimism in December has reignited fears that smaller firms are missing out on the recovery. As we have pointed out before, however, the NFIB... 17th January 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Dec.) The Economy Watchers Survey (EWS) suggests that the recovery may have regained some momentum in December, but the outlook component is still weaker than current conditions and both are well below the... 12th January 2011 · 1 min read
China Data Response NBS business conditions survey (Q4) Most companies in China finished 2010 confident about the future. The business environment still seems skewed in favour of large and state-owned firms, which enjoy more government support... 10th January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Dec.) December’s EC business and consumer survey suggests that, for now at least, the improving global economic outlook is offsetting the ongoing troubles in the periphery. 6th January 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan; just when you thought the situation could not worsen Political instability, which is never far away in Pakistan, has risen following this week’s assassination of the governor of Punjab province and the withdrawal of another party from the ruling... 5th January 2011 · 1 min read
