US Economics Update Financial market moves could take 0.5% off GDP growth If the recent financial market moves are sustained, the net effect could be to reduce annualised GDP growth by around 0.5%. That would not tip the US into recession. But it supports our long-held view... 6th August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Jun.) & Final Comp. PMI (Jul.) June’s rise in euro-zone retail sales does little to alter our view that consumers remain badly placed to offset the slowdown in other sectors of the economy. 4th August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can the new rescue package solve Greece’s problems? The new details on the second rescue package for Greece that have emerged over the past week or so have not altered our view that Greece’s outstanding debt burden remains unsustainably high. A second... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Jul.) July’s fall in euro-zone economic sentiment adds to the evidence of a broad-based economic slowdown. The decline in the economy-wide Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI), from 105.1 to 103.2, was... 29th July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update The beginning of the end for the euro? The continued failure of European policymakers to agree on a new package to support Greece and the growing signs that larger economies like Spain and Italy are being dragged further into the crisis... 13th July 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The latest on Egypt’s transition The euphoria that accompanied Egypt’s January revolution has given way to the realities of the economic and political challenges facing the country. Overall, we think that the initial expectations of... 13th July 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How big a worry is the suspension of US aid for Pakistan? The US government announced on Sunday that it has suspended $800m in military aid to Pakistan amid a further deterioration in the relationship between the two countries. The announcement is clearly a... 12th July 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Why do countries default and what are the consequences? History suggests that in many cases a sovereign default ultimately proves to be a good thing for the country concerned, as it can set the stage for economic recovery. This is more likely to be the... 8th July 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: still no rush to tighten June’s IMEF surveys suggest that the Mexican economy picked up a little pace in the second quarter of this year. Nonetheless, growth remains sluggish compared to the rest of the region and with the US... 6th July 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia HSBC/Markit PMI (June) June’s PMI data suggest that Saudi Arabia’s economy is in something of a sweet spot at present, with output in the non-oil private sector picking up pace and inflation pressures starting to ease a... 5th July 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Can Asia avoid the middle-income trap? Most of emerging Asia should continue to grow rapidly for at least another decade, and much longer if the right policy choices are made. The key exception is China where, despite a bright long-run... 5th July 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly A closer look at the Tankan The Tankan confirmed that Japanese business conditions deteriorated in Q2, but more importantly that they are likely to improve, albeit only slightly, in Q3. As the initial disruption from the... 5th July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek disaster averted, for now at least The fact that the Greek parliament has passed the Government’s medium-term fiscal plan clearly reduces the chances of a near-term disaster, but the country remains in a precarious position. 30th June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Jun.) June’s EC business and consumer survey dealt a further blow to hopes that sustained strong growth in the euro-zone’s core economies might help to ease the crisis in the periphery. 30th June 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales (May) & SME Confidence (Jun.) Retail sales have almost recovered to their pre-disaster level, but are unlikely to remain strong. Overall, sales are on a downward trend which is set to continue as unemployment rises and wages fall... 29th June 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground - Q2 2011 Businesses feel that demand is slowing while household concerns about inflation have continued to ease. But households are also downbeat about income growth and this seems to be undermining any... 17th June 2011 · 1 min read
