Canada Economics Update Business Outlook Survey (2012Q3) Businesses are clearly more cautious about the outlook for sales and we think they are still too optimistic, especially now that the domestic economy looks vulnerable to a housing correction... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) & Empire State Index (Oct.) The strong rise in retail sales in September was probably flattered by a gain in food prices (triggered by the recent drought) and the release of Apple’s iPhone 5. Nonetheless, it now seems likely... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Why is Spain still dragging its heels? Spain’s delay in applying for a bail-out and hence triggering the ECB’s new bond buying plan probably reflects both political and financial considerations. But it can’t hold out for much longer. 11th October 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Will the reform boost for Indian markets last? The recent burst of reforms has buoyed India’s equity and currency markets, and some further measures are possible in the coming weeks. However, the country’s fundamental outlook has not improved... 11th October 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Jordan: a new government, but no chance of economic reforms On the face of it, the appointment of a widely respected economist as Jordan’s new Prime Minister should help to kick-start much-needed economic and fiscal reforms in the country. But in practice we... 10th October 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Don't bank on stock market gains once earnings start to fall The US Q2 earnings season kicks off today. The news is likely to be downbeat, with the annual growth rate of profits reportedly expected to be negative for the first time since 2009. In recent months... 9th October 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers' Survey (Sep. 12) The continued sharp fall in confidence revealed in the latest Economy Watchers’ Survey adds to the evidence that the economy contracted in the third quarter. The outlook component is equally weak... 9th October 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African rand still has further to fall The South African rand has sold-off sharply in the past few days, but we think a combination of domestic political unrest, a challenging external environment, and a widening current account deficit... 8th October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chávez re-election to deepen Venezuela’s economic problems Hugo Chávez’s re-election as President of Venezuela is likely to result in a sharp sell-off in the bond market over the coming days and a 40-50% devaluation of the bolivar before year-end. More... 8th October 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt and the thorny issue of devaluation Egypt’s talks with the IMF over a financing package are set to get underway this month. There are a number of major stumbling blocks, the most contentious of which is whether Egypt is forced to... 5th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Rebound in small business optimism no game changer 4th October 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Tankan consistent with GDP contraction Today’s weak Tankan survey supports our long-held view that Japan’s economy will have contracted in the third quarter. What’s more, a further contraction in Q4 looks increasingly likely. 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Sep.) September’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey suggested that sales growth may have picked up slightly. While this is consistent with some of the other tentative signs of “green shoots” in the last few... 26th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) July's 0.6% m/m gain in retail sales volumes was somewhat stronger than we had assumed, but only helps to offset declines in wholesale trade and manufacturing sales, which we think restrained July's... 25th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Businesses are not hoarding more cash It is encouraging that, faced with the prospect of the US economy hitting the fiscal cliff at the end of the year, businesses have not started to hoard more cash. At the same time, though, there is... 24th September 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Argentina: Has INDEC had a reality check? The most striking thing about Argentina’s Q2 GDP data is that the upward bias to growth, which has been evident in the official figures since mid-2007, seems to have eased. Even so, there are no signs... 24th September 2012 · 1 min read
