UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Oct.) October’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor provided evidence that, following Q3’s generally positive news from the high street, a retail recovery seems to be fizzling out. 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Recovery remains just out of reach The squeeze on real pay is ending but the prospect of an actual recovery now looks a bit further off. We still expect the consumer spending recovery to be very muted. 5th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Businesses halt investment ahead of the fiscal cliff The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer survey suggested that businesses are increasingly putting on hold investment decisions just in case Congress allows the fiscal cliff to hit. There is a growing... 5th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Banks more willing to lend, but demand faltering The Fed's latest Senior Loan Officer Survey (SLOS) shows that banks are more willing to lend, but the problem is that, with global economic growth slowing and the fiscal cliff looming, US households... 31st October 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Who will lead China? China’s once-in-a-decade leadership transition reaches a climax in November when a new generation takes control of the Party. In this China Watch, we ask who the key figures of the new leadership are... 31st October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chilean growth firmer than September data suggest Chile’s latest economic activity data are not as bad as they first appear. Much of the weakness in retail sales and manufacturing can be put down to the extended independence holidays. That said, we... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why Yanukovich’s victory is bad news for Ukraine With 70% of the vote now counted, Ukraine’s ruling coalition looks likely to maintain its majority in parliament (although by a dangerously thin margin). The good news is that the election has so far... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Election going down to the wire Regardless of who wins the Presidential election, the chances of the victor having a compliant Congress appear to be fading fast. So even if Romney won, the most likely scenario is still that a deal... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana on track to outperform Increased oil and gas production should mean that Ghana outperforms the rest of the region and grows by 8-10% over the next couple of years. But beyond this, the key will be to ensure that energy... 26th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed in wait and see mode ahead of election After the fireworks at the last FOMC meeting in mid-September, when the Fed launched an open-ended QE3 and strengthened its forward-looking guidance on leaving its policy rate at near-zero, the two... 24th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Why China & Brazil must become more alike Rapid development in Brazil and China has been driven by radically different growth models: whereas Brazil has relied on high levels of consumption, China has depended on high rates of investment. But... 22nd October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Renewed income squeeze looms Real consumer spending looks on course to have grown in the third quarter. And following some upward revisions to past spending, it could rise a touch in 2012 as a whole, compared to our previous... 19th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update A closer look at the presidential candidates’ housing plans The election campaign has been frustratingly light on detail with regards to housing policy. Piecing together what we have, however, it looks like anyone expecting either candidates’ housing plan to... 18th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) September’s rise in the official measure of retail sales volumes suggested that consumers have loosened their purse strings a little. However, the rise partly reflected temporary sources of support... 18th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update US economy developing split personality The US economy appears to be developing a split personality. Households, seemingly oblivious to the scheduled jump in marginal tax rates that will reduce their after-tax income next year, are... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Business rate rises will become less painful Today’s consumer prices figures brought the news that RPI inflation in September – the rate which will be used to uprate business rates next April – was 2.6%. While this will be another chunky rise in... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
