UK Economics Chart Pack Real pay to fall for longer Recent developments have darkened the outlook for inflation and therefore imply that the squeeze on real pay is likely to persist to the very end of 2013. The recent rise in oil prices suggests that... 18th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Ecuador gambles on a third Correa term Rafael Correa’s emphatic victory in yesterday’s Ecuadorian Presidential Election looks to have breathed new life into a Latin American left which has suffered a series of setbacks in recent months... 18th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) January’s surprise fall in the official measure of retail sales volumes has brought the recent run of better economic news to an abrupt end. While most of this weakness appears to have reflected the... 15th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Sequestration a secondary issue to budget talks The probability is rising that Congress won't act to prevent the sequestration spending cuts taking effect at the start of next month. On paper, that would reduce spending by $110bn per year... 14th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) It is mildly encouraging that consumption in January did not capitulate completely after the recent tax hikes. And while higher taxes and the latest leap in gasoline prices could yet hit sales harder... 13th February 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Talk of currency wars to dominate G20 meeting Next week’s G20 gathering in Moscow will be overshadowed by talk of currency wars. But in our view, competitive exchange rate devaluations do not pose a significant threat to the global recovery. 8th February 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update A primer on the Kenyan elections Kenya is preparing to hold elections next month, and with little to differentiate the economic policies of the two leading presidential candidates, voting is likely to be based in large part on ethnic... 8th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Another tough year to get through Consumers will have to endure a further tough year. We no longer expect consumer spending to rise at all in real terms in 2013. But a recovery should start next year. 6th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Dec.) & Final PMI Survey (Jan.) December’s fall in euro-zone retail sales confirmed that the consumer sector remains under strain and supported other evidence that GDP fell sharply in Q4. But January’s final PMI survey added to... 5th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Jan.) January’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor suggested that retailers managed to escape relatively unscathed from the bad weather in the middle of the month. But with consumer confidence still low and real pay... 5th February 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business confidence index points to better start to 2013 The recent improvement in small and medium sized business confidence points to a pick-up in economic growth in the first quarter, to around 2% annualised, roughly twice the pace of last quarter. We... 1st February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Can companies get the recovery going? Companies represent the one sector of the economy which has the means to spend more and so kick-start a recovery. But we are doubtful whether this sector has the motive. A number of factors will... 31st January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Jan.) January’s modest uptick in consumer confidence is consistent with evidence from the CBI’s Distributive Trades survey that 2013 got off to a so-so start. But talk of a “triple-dip” recession following... 31st January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Companies running faster just to stand still While the economy may be entering a “triple-dip”, employment growth continues to be surprisingly strong. A look at which sectors are creating jobs suggests that part of the rise in employment reflects... 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Jan.) Although indicating a modest slowdown in sales growth, January’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey still suggested that retailers enjoyed a reasonable level of activity in January. But signs of optimism... 24th January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) November's solid 0.8% m/m gain in retail sales volumes, paired with a similar increase in wholesale trade, suggests that monthly GDP grew by 0.3% m/m in November. Nonetheless, there is still some... 22nd January 2013 · 1 min read
