UK Economics Update Car sales main beneficiary of looser credit conditions The recovery in new car sales continues to go from strength to strength. But it is still failing to translate into a broader pick-up in consumer spending and we remain sceptical that it will do so... 6th June 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Verdict on Abe speech seems harsh Judging by the initial market reaction and media coverage, PM Abe’s “growth strategy” already appears to be a damp squib. To be fair, it was always unrealistic to expect a Prime Ministerial speech in... 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is the UK turning Japanese? The UK economy is at risk of following a path that is, if anything, worse than the ‘lost decades’ Japan experienced from the early 1990s. While the UK possesses some advantages Japan lacked, in some... 4th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (May) Together with last week’s improvement in consumer confidence, May’s stronger growth in the BRC measure of retail sales points to building momentum in the consumer sector. But with employment and... 4th June 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business confidence falters on insufficient domestic demand The further decline in the small and medium-sized business confidence in May suggests that second-quarter GDP growth may have slowed down to less than half the estimated 2.2% annualised in the first... 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Retail sales yet to take off Despite all the hype about “Abenomics” already encouraging a surge in consumer spending, the hard data on retail sales remain subdued. This makes sense given the persistent weakness of employment and... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (May) The fall in May’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey provides another reason to think that the retail sector has lost momentum in the second quarter. Falling employment and negative pay growth means... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Demographics will not determine future of EMs Healthy demographics can certainly play a role in supporting growth in emerging markets. However, the future performance of places such as India, the Middle East and Africa, where demographics are... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Small business survey illustrates risks to recovery The incoming economic data are of course being overshadowed by the market volatility, but today’s Shoko Chukin survey suggests that small businesses may be losing a little faith in “Abenomics” too. 28th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia makes a weak start to Q2 April’s activity data will dent any remaining hopes for a quick rebound in Russian growth following the slump in Q1. As a result, the Central Bank is likely to come under yet further pressure to cut... 24th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus What next for the EM recovery? The recovery in emerging market (EM) growth during the second half of 2012 has faltered since the start of this year. This is due in large part to renewed weakness in the BRIC economies, which we... 23rd May 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) Despite the healthy 0.7% m/m gain in retail sales volumes in March, earlier reports showing far more tepid increases in manufacturing and wholesale trade suggest that the economy ended the first... 22nd May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales & Pub. Fin. (Apr.), MPC Minutes (May) Today’s data contained some mixed signals on the strength of the economic recovery, with retail sales slumping but with the public finances making a reasonable start to the year. 22nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Kuwait's politics holding back investment A fresh bout of tensions between Kuwait’s parliament and the government reinforces our concerns that the country’s fractious politics is undermining the economy’s growth prospects. All told, we think... 21st May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A closer look at international corporate bond issuance This week’s bumper foreign debt sale by Brazil’s Petrobras has put the spotlight on the fast-expanding overseas market for EM corporate bonds. As it happens, this type of financing is still a small... 16th May 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Will “Abenomics” transform Japan? The election of a new government under Prime Minister Abe has certainly transformed market sentiment towards Japan over the past six months. However, taking a closer look at each of the components of... 15th May 2013 · 1 min read
