China Economics Update No “Master Plan” so far from Third Plenum President Xi raised expectations ahead of the Third Plenum with talk of a “Master Plan” for reform. We should learn more in the days ahead but, based on what has been revealed so far, the decisions... 12th November 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Oct.) & Current Account (Sep.) The rise in the outlook component of the Economy Watchers Survey to a six month high suggests that economic conditions remained robust at the start of the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, the record current... 11th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Ageing population need not hit workforce growth too hard The ONS’ latest population projections suggest that the UK’s population will age even more rapidly than previously expected. But we doubt this will feed into a one-for-one fall in workforce growth and... 8th November 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) & Labour Cash Earnings (Sep.) The manufacturing PMI reached a three-year high in October and points to a further rebound in industrial production in coming months. Meanwhile, labour cash earnings edged up in September, but the... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Kuwait reform is likely to be a long journey Comments by Kuwait’s ruling Emir ahead of the reopening of the National Assembly suggest that the government has recognised the need for wholesale economic reform. Even so, we think that reform... 30th October 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Unemployment Rate, Retail Sales (Sep.) & Small Business Confidence (Oct.) Today's data show that economic momentum remains strong. Small business confidence and retail sales both reached new multi-year highs, helped by strong employment gains. 29th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech election uncertainty unlikely to have big economic impact This weekend’s inconclusive Czech legislative election has raised the prospect of a prolonged period of political uncertainty, which many suggest could have a detrimental impact on the economy and the... 28th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Oct 13.) The fall in German Ifo business sentiment in October provided another timely reminder that the euro-zone recovery remains fragile. 25th October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) The moderate increase in August retail sales volumes, after earlier reports showing unimpressive wholesale and manufacturing figures for that month, suggest that the economy might have struggled to... 22nd October 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Senior Loan Officer Survey (Q3) The BoJ’s Senior Loan Officer Survey shows that household loan demand remains very strong. Corporate loan demand is weaker but record low lending rates and an ongoing easing in lending standards... 22nd October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Long German coalition talks won't cause much change While the struggle to form a new German Government looks set to continue for another month, this does not mean that major change is afoot. Angela Merkel might make some concessions on a national... 17th October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: rebound in retail sales not as impressive as it first seems The sharp pick-up in Brazilian retail sales over the past couple of months has fuelled hopes that the country’s consumer-led growth model has kicked back into gear. We’re not so sure. While spending... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Senate edging closer to deal to reopen government The Senate appears to be edging closer to a deal to reopen the Federal government and raise the debt ceiling. There is a risk that the Republican-controlled House will initially reject that agreement... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Further yen weakness and Nikkei strength ahead Japanese equities are among the most vulnerable to the fall-out from a potential US government default. What’s more, profit margins are already close to record highs, and the pass-through of earlier... 14th October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus End of ‘Kirchnerismo’ could unlock Argentina’s potential With mid-term elections approaching and Cristina Fernàndez’s hold on power seemingly slipping,some are betting on Argentina’s economy to roar back. This is premature – in fact, in the near term,a more... 10th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US default would put familiar faces back in the firing line A default by the US government would be without precedent and the potential spillovers to emerging markets are unclear. Nonetheless, it seems likely that the same EMs that were hit during the summer... 10th October 2013 · 1 min read
