Asia Economics Update Coalition politics still likely to hinder Indian reform Markets have rallied in India on the back of the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party’s strong showing in state elections, which puts it in a strong position ahead of the general election in a few months... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand’s political crisis adds to economic concerns Thailand's Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra dissolved parliament today and called for elections "as soon as possible". This step is unlikely to resolve political tensions, given that the opposition... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nelson Mandela’s economic legacy Nelson Mandela’s role in the political development of South Africa is unquestionable, but significant economic progress was also made under his leadership. However, this is now in danger of being... 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Elections in the "Fragile Five": threat or an opportunity? Each of the five countries that were the worst hit by the summer currency sell-off (the so-called “Fragile Five”) are due to hold important elections next year. In the short term, uncertainty ahead of... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update More 'creative destruction' is good news for productivity New data on UK business births and deaths show that both are on the rise. With productivity growth driven largely by the impact of firms entering and exiting industries, evidence of more ‘creative... 3rd December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Political unrest could push Ukraine into an economic crisis The reaction in the Ukrainian financial markets to escalating political protests in Kiev has been smaller than might have been expected. There is a large amount of uncertainty about what will happen... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indian growth bottoming out, bumpy recovery ahead Indian GDP growth appears to be bottoming out. Growth accelerated in the third quarter of 2013 from the more than four-year low of the previous quarter. Looking ahead, we believe that the economy's... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How will we know if the Plenum reforms are on track? The Third Plenum provided an impressive statement of reform intentions but it changed nothing on the ground. What signposts can we look for to gauge how rapidly new policies are being implemented? 28th November 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update How disruptive are tensions with China? The recent escalation of the conflict over the Senkaku islands may lead to renewed disruption of bilateral trade and investment between Japan and China. The experience from last year’s flare-up in... 27th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Are small retailers gaining at the expense of large ones? Although small retailers suffered much more than large ones during the economy’s post-2008 weakness, more recently, small retailers have started to outperform their larger competitors. But we doubt... 26th November 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Nov.) Small business confidence reached a fresh high in November, but will likely worsen once the consumption tax is raised next April. 26th November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: ignoring the lessons from Venezuela? Several high profile changes to Argentina's cabinet have reawakened speculation that the country is on the brink of formalising a multiple exchange rate system. If the experience of Venezuela is... 20th November 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Land reform set to boost rural incomes The Party leadership has given its blessing to land reforms that should shift more income to rural households. Change will happen slowly but the result should be a boost to consumer spending. 20th November 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand’s economy remains fragile, and downside risks are rising GDP data today showed Thailand’s economy returning to growth in the third quarter, but a strong recovery is unlikely to materialise any time soon. High household debt and delays to public investment... 18th November 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Reform package exceeds expectations The underwhelming Communiqué released after the Third Plenum on Tuesday raised big questions about whether the leadership had been able to get backing for a meaningful package of reforms. On the basis... 15th November 2013 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What will Bachelet 2.0 mean for Chile? This weekend’s Chilean Presidential Election may go down as the most one-sided affair in recent memory, with former president Michelle Bachelet set to sweep to a second term in office. But while the... 13th November 2013 · 1 min read
