Emerging Markets Economics Update It’s the institutions, stupid The eruption of anti-government protests in several emerging economies over the past month has led many investors to add “political risk” to the lengthening list of reasons to be cautious on EMs. But... 25th February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Feb & Q1.) February’s strong CBI Distributive Trades Survey should sweep away any concerns fostered by January’s fall in the official measure of retail sales volumes that the recovery in retail spending is... 25th February 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Feb.) The modest fall in small business confidence in February will likely be followed by a further deterioration in coming months as conditions are set to weaken after April's sales tax hike. 25th February 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will a shift in Fed policy send profits into a tailspin? A rise in borrowing costs triggered by less accommodative monetary policy is likely to have an adverse effect on the profits of increasingly-indebted US companies. But we doubt margins will collapse. 24th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update European elections may hinder national reform efforts A surge in support for euro-sceptic parties at the European Parliament elections in May will probably have little direct impact on the institution itself. But rising support for populist parties may... 24th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Feb 14.) The rise in February’s German Ifo survey suggests that the economic recovery has continued to pick up some momentum in the early months of 2014. But growth in the euro-zone’s main engine looks set to... 24th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What next for Ukraine? It goes without saying that, with events in Ukraine in an almost constant state of flux, predicting what might happen next is close to impossible. In this Update we outline four factors that will be... 24th February 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Thailand's political crisis and its economic implications Thailand has been mired in a political crisis since November last year which continues to show no clear sign of resolution. The prolonged impasse has disrupted economic activity and is hurting the... 20th February 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Prolonged political crisis holding back growth in Thailand Following an inconclusive general election, Thailand’s power vacuum is likely to persist for a couple more months at least. Most attention has been focused on the potential short-term economic... 17th February 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update G20 talking shop moves to Sydney Policy-makers from some emerging economies may air their grievances about US monetary policy at next week’s G20 gathering, but there is no consensus among them on what the Fed should be doing. More... 14th February 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus How significant are China’s Third Plenum reforms? China's leaders unveiled a detailed and comprehensive plan to reform the economy at the end of last year. The early signs on implementation are encouraging. As a result, we think 2014 will be a... 10th February 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand's political crisis to continue dragging on economy Although Sunday's general election proceeded as scheduled, Thailand's political crisis shows no sign of letting up. While the incumbent Pheu Thai Party almost certainly won the most votes, it could be... 3rd February 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Jan.) Small business confidence climbed to yet another fresh high in January. Conditions seem to be more buoyant in the non-manufacturing sector than in manufacturing, but sentiment will likely deteriorate... 28th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Market turmoil underlines need for greater EM discrimination Market turbulence in Turkey, Ukraine and now Argentina has led to talk of a new crisis sweepingemerging markets (EMs). But the emerging world has become a far more diverse place over the pastdecade... 24th January 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Shrinking workforce not a major growth risk Contrary to some headlines this week, the ongoing decline in China’s working age population does not pose a major threat to China’s medium-term growth prospects. What matters is what happens to worker... 23rd January 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Could local politicians block the restart of nuclear energy? The upcoming gubernatorial election in Tokyo is being widely billed as a referendum on national energy policy, with one prominent candidate running on an anti-nuclear platform. However, the influence... 22nd January 2014 · 1 min read
