Japan Data Response Business Outlook Survey (Q1) Today's Business Outlook Survey suggests that demand should start to recover in Q3 after taking a hit from the consumption tax hike next quarter. 12th March 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Dilma’s first term in six charts Brazil’s president, Dilma Rousseff, looks set to triumph at elections later this year, despite the fact that economic growth during her time in office has been weaker than under any president since... 11th March 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Feb) The plunge in the outlook component of the Economy Watchers Survey in February points to a sharp deterioration in demand in coming months. 10th March 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How vulnerable is Japan to geopolitical risks? Events in Ukraine and elsewhere in the emerging world have brought into focus Japan’s exposure to geopolitical risks due to its reliance on imported energy and the yen’s safe-haven role. Barring some... 10th March 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela: Creaking current account points to default One year after the death of Hugo Chavez, the former Venezuelan President’s legacy of fiscal largesse and rampant inflation has left the economy on the brink of a balance of payments crisis. With... 6th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How much could financial sanctions on Russia hurt the West? If the crisis in Ukraine escalates further, the West seems more likely to impose limited financial sanctions against Russia than to target trade in goods, especially energy. Some Russian officials... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Initial thoughts on the National People’s Congress The unchanged GDP growth target is the big news on the opening day of the National People’s Congress, though the government has given itself more wriggle room on growth than may immediately be... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine crisis a political, not economic, crisis for CEE The economies of Central and Eastern European are the most exposed to spillovers from the crisis in Ukraine, but as things stand the economic impact is likely to be limited. Admittedly, the crisis has... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Three things to watch at the National People’s Congress The National People’s Congress meeting that starts in Beijing this week will give us a chance to review progress on economic reform since the Third Plenum and to gauge where the leadership’s immediate... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Counting the economic costs of the Ukraine crisis for Russia Although financial markets in Russia have tumbled today, the immediate fallout from the Ukraine crisis for Russia’s economy might well be less severe than many fear. Nonetheless, with growth already... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) The latest PMI surveys confirm the continued slowdown in manufacturing. We think the outlook for the sector remains downbeat. Despite the recent surge in liquidity we suspect that policymakers will... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of the recent drop in the ruble Events in Ukraine have been one factor behind the fall in the Russian ruble, but domestic problems have played a role too. The central bank (CBR) has already voiced its concern that exchange rate... 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Can private investment shake-up China's state sector? Policymakers are moving to encourage private investors to play a larger role in China's state sector. However, unless the government is willing to relax control over state firms, investors will have... 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales, Industrial Production & Consumer Prices (Jan.) Today's data confirm that the economy is picking up speed ahead of the consumption tax hike. However, the first fall in inflation since the start of QQE shows that the BoJ still has more work to do... 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update First thoughts on the economic fallout from Ukraine’s unrest It’s difficult to gauge the immediate impact of recent developments in Ukraine on the economy, but historical evidence from similar instances of unrest and political transition suggests that GDP... 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How much financial support does Ukraine need? As Ukraine’s political transition progresses, attention has turned to the urgent need for external assistance in order to avoid a balance of payments crisis and possibly even a default on its external... 26th February 2014 · 1 min read
