Global Economics Update Russia would be the main casualty of a “gas war” There would be very few winners from any further escalation of the crisis in Ukraine, but Russia still has more to lose in economic and financial terms than the West. In particular, Western European... 14th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fiscal stimulus alone won’t revive Russia’s economy The discussion about how to soften the fallout from the Ukraine crisis on the Russian economy has started to shift towards fiscal stimulus, with key ministers advocating looser fiscal policy earlier... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Feb.) Machinery orders fell back sharply in February, and current levels point to broadly stagnant non-residential investment. However, declining spare capacity suggests that capital expenditure should... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus A look back at Zuma’s first term South Africa’s president, Jacob Zuma, looks set to triumph in next month’s election despite – rather than because of – the performance of the economy during his first term in office. Looking ahead... 9th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The economic implications of Ukraine’s IMF deal Unrest in the east of Ukraine has cast the spotlight back onto the political troubles facing the country’s interim government. What happens from here is highly uncertain, but in the meantime the... 8th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary opts for another four more years of Orbanomics Prime Minister Orban’s Fidesz party swept to victory in yesterday’s parliamentary election in Hungary and, in the very near term, his premiership is likely to come alongside a strengthening economic... 7th April 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Is Jokowi the man to get Indonesia back on track? Indonesia’s elections get underway later this month. They come at a crucial time, with the economy stuttering and confidence in the current leadership at a low ebb. The presidential favourite, Joko... 7th April 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Algerian elections unlikely to herald major reforms Algerians are set to take to the polls later this month as they vote for their next president. In theory, this could be an opportunity to kick-start much-needed economic reform. But, as we explain in... 3rd April 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) Taken at face value, today's PMIs appear to offer conflicting messages. In practice however, their divergence provides useful clues into the state of the manufacturing sector, suggesting that large... 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q1) The improvement in business conditions last quarter fell short of expectations, and the Bank of Japan's Tankan survey suggests that growth will slow sharply in the second quarter of this year. 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia Election Watch – Next president must be a reformer It seems unlikely that the next Colombian president will be able to rely on a booming natural resources sector to support economic growth. As such, if Juan Manuel Santos is successful in seeking re... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update AK party’s support may suffer from weakening growth Turkish municipal election results showed that PM Erdogan and the ruling AK party continue to enjoy high levels of popularity, bolstered by the strength of the economy. Nonetheless, in spite of today... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production (Feb.) & Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) Today's data show that Japan's manufacturing sector lost some speed ahead of tomorrow's increase in the consumption tax. 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update MENA equities continue to outperform Equity markets in the MENA region continue to soar. Dubai’s market has been the region’s best performer since the start of the year, closely followed by that of Egypt, which has been buoyed by... 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update IMF deal brings Ukraine back from the brink This morning’s announcement by the IMF that it has reached a staff level agreement to provide financial support to Ukraine of $14-18bn reduces the risk of a balance of payments crisis and a default on... 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Crisis in Crimea takes its toll on Russia The escalation of the crisis on the Crimean peninsula is already taking a toll on Russia. The economy was doing little more than stagnate even before geopolitical tensions flared up. And large scale... 26th March 2014 · 1 min read
