Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bahrain: one of the Gulf’s laggards Bahrain’s economy grew at its fastest pace last year since 2008, but this was driven by a rebound in the oil sector which is unlikely to last. On top of this, political tensions remain high and fiscal... 18th June 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Iraq crisis tops a long list of geopolitical risks There are good reasons to be relaxed about the global economic fall-out from the latest crisis in Iraq, including the possibility that it might actually lead to an improvement in relations between the... 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Santos pips Zuluaga in Colombian elections The re-election of Juan Manuel Santos as the president of Colombia will ensure the continuation of peace talks with the FARC, but is unlikely to signal a shift away from the economy’s reliance on... 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia leaves rates on hold as another "gas war" looms The Central Bank of Russia was never likely to alter interest rates at its meeting today – while the economy remains weak, high and rising inflation limits the room for policy support. Meanwhile, news... 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update First thoughts on the impact of the crisis in Iraq The unfolding crisis in Iraq, including the capture of key cities by insurgents, will heighten fears that the country is sliding into civil war. While we suspect that the economic impact of the crisis... 12th June 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan’s security concerns not the only constraint on growth Although recent political violence in Pakistan has once again put the country’s poor security situation under the spotlight, it is far from the only problem the country faces. We expect growth in... 12th June 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Apr.) The inevitable plunge in machinery orders in April following March's surge does not alter our view that investment spending will continue to recover. 12th June 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Business Outlook Survey (Q2) Today's Business Outlook Survey points to a sharp drop in output this quarter, but firms still expect demand to recover in the second half of the year. 11th June 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch “Third arrow” may trigger additional monetary stimulus The Bank of Japan will likely leave policy settings unchanged at the meeting that concludes on Friday (13 th June). We continue to expect more easing in October as it becomes clear that inflation... 10th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update More to Turkey’s rebalancing than meets the eye Turkish Q1 GDP data due tomorrow are likely toreinforce optimism in the markets that the economyis undergoing a smooth rebalancing, with netexports taking over from domestic demand as themain driver... 9th June 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey & Consumer Confidence (May) The improvements in consumer confidence and the Economy Watchers Survey last month add to the evidence that the slump after the consumption tax hike is unlikely to last long. 9th June 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Can the junta save the Thai economy? Since assuming power, the army has made spurring the flagging Thai economy one of its top priorities. Public spending should receive a boost, but private sector expenditure is likely to remain subdued... 5th June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil Election Watch: No evidence of a pre-election giveaway… yet The latest data do not contain much evidence of a pre-election giveaway in Brazil but President Rousseff’s slide in the opinion polls since the start of the year, coupled with a stagnant economy and a... 3rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Capital Expenditure (Q1) The Ministry of Finance's survey on corporate finances confirmed that the recovery in business investment continued last quarter. 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly South East Asia losing its shine The slowdown in GDP growth in South East Asia in recent quarters represents something of a fall from grace for the region, which until recently was a rare bright spot in the global economy. With the... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Political risk back on the agenda Political developments have once again taken centre stage over the past month. Most attention has focused on Thailand, where the army has staged a military coup. This may help to reduce uncertainty in... 29th May 2014 · 1 min read
