Europe Economics Update New Government will keep Slovenian recovery on track Slovenia’s recent election looks set to produce a government that will dilute the country’s muchneededprivatisation programme. Nonetheless, on balance, the new administration will probably... 15th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is retailers’ pricing power starting to strengthen? The sharp rise in core inflation in June reported by today’s official consumer prices figures contrastswith timelier survey evidence suggesting that discounting on the high street has been... 15th July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Maduro must reform to save the Venezuelan economy Nicolas Maduro has so far failed to reverse any of the damage to the Venezuelan economy caused by his predecessor, Hugo Chavez. Rather than continue to tinker with exchange rate mechanisms, we think... 15th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Jun.) Whilst retailers appear to have fared well over the second quarter as a whole,June’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor provided further evidence that the ongoing pricewar between supermarkets is depressing the... 15th July 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update A look ahead to the Nigerian elections With President Goodluck Jonathan soon expected to announce his bid to run for another term in office, attention is quickly turning to Nigeria’s general election, which is now just over six months away... 15th July 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia: challenges remain but outlook is brightening Tunisia’s economy has faced a difficult few years since the country’s revolution in 2011. But assuming that upcoming elections pass smoothly, a return to some form of political stability should lay... 14th July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil Election Watch - Election remains Dilma's to lose The latest opinion polls suggest that October’s election remains President Rousseff’s to lose. But although support for her has edged up in the latest polls, following a sharp fall earlier this year... 9th July 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What will a Jokowi presidency mean for Indonesia? Joko Widodo looks to have won today’s presidential election in Indonesia, and hopes are high that he will make a fresh start on economic reform. However, the constraints of coalition politics, as well... 9th July 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand is showing signs of post-crisis recovery Thailand's economy appears to be on the road to recovery following the military coup on 22 nd May. But challenges remain and we expect the economy to grow at less than its trend rate for a while yet. 9th July 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What to expect from Indonesia’s election? Indonesia’s presidential election on Wednesday could have a crucial bearing on the future of the country’s economy. Financial markets would favour a victory for Joko Widodo, the current mayor of... 7th July 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q2) While today's Tankan points to a contraction in GDP of around 0.5% q/q last quarter, the survey suggests that the recovery will resume in the second half of the year. 1st July 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Jun.) & Housing Starts (May) According to June's small business confidence, the economy has recovered quickly from the shock to demand caused by the consumption tax hike. 30th June 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Limited growth boost from revised “third arrow” The revised “Growth Strategy” published this week contained some positive surprises. In particular, it proposes a revision of the tax and social security system that could result in a sizeable boost... 30th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine’s economy remains fragile despite positive political steps A series of conciliatory remarks from both the Russian and Ukrainian authorities in recent days has given rise to hopes that tensions in Eastern Ukraine may start to ease. But despite promising signs... 25th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets shrug off Poland’s political scandal The muted reaction in the financial markets to the scandal currently engulfing the Polish government is testament to the economy’s underlying strength as well as the quality of the country’s... 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bahrain: one of the Gulf’s laggards Bahrain’s economy grew at its fastest pace last year since 2008, but this was driven by a rebound in the oil sector which is unlikely to last. On top of this, political tensions remain high and fiscal... 18th June 2014 · 1 min read
