Latin America Economics Update Rise in Mexican investment has further to run Stronger investment spending looks set to underpin faster economic growth in Mexico over the coming years. So in contrast to Brazil where weak investment has caused capacity constraints to build and... 9th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian labour data suggest weaker growth a structural problem The fallout from the crisis in Ukraine and the subsequent sanctions imposed by Western governments have certainly contributed to the recent weakness of Russia’s economy. But there are ominous signs –... 9th October 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisian elections may prove to be the spur for reform Upcoming elections in Tunisia are another important step along the country’s long and bumpy path to democracy. If the elections pass smoothly, as seems likely, this should at the very least provide a... 8th October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latest rise in Brazilian inflation gives ammunition to Neves The latest rise in Brazilian inflation, which has pushed it further above the upper bound of the central bank’s target range, will give further ammunition to Aécio Neves ahead of his run-off against... 8th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Why slower growth is the "new normal" for emerging markets For all the recent talk of a “great moderation” in EM growth, the uncomfortable truth is that the big slowdown in the emerging world actually occurred several years ago. More recently, growth has in... 8th October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Sep.) The renewed deterioration in the outlook component of today’s Economy Watchers Survey suggests that a rapid recovery of Japan’s economy is not on the cards. 8th October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How big is the threat from “geopolitics”? Geopolitical risks have grabbed the headlines recently and have been cited as a key factor depressing global economic prospects. However, the military conflicts which have attracted most attention... 6th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the recovery running out of steam? The sharp decline in the manufacturing PMI and smaller fall in the services PMI in September has led some to question the durability of the UK’s economic recovery. There is little reason to be worried... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Aug.) & Final PMIs (Sep.) August’s increase in euro-zone retail sales provided a positive sign for consumer spending. But with September’s PMIs revised down in the final estimates, there is more evidence that the euro-zone... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Could Q3 be as good as it gets? Although global growth should be a little faster in the second half of the year than the first, it is unlikely to continue rising in the coming quarters. Admittedly, the US looks set for a sustained... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How much does Hong Kong matter to China? The economic fallout from a further escalation of the pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong would not be limited to the territory. Indeed, it is important not to underestimate the potential costs to... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil Election Watch – heading to a second round No candidate looks set to secure a majority in the first round of voting in Brazil’s presidential election this Sunday, meaning that the race is all but certain to extend to a second round run-off... 2nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Resignation of BCRA Governor opens door to more unorthodoxy The resignation of the Governor of the Argentine central bank (BCRA) opens the door for even more unorthodox economic policy. With no end in sight to the government’s debt dispute, and policymaking... 2nd October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update iPhone 6 release won’t be a plus for the economy While the new iPhone release may have some effect on forthcoming consumption and import data, it won’t have any notable effect on GDP. Nonetheless, the outlook for consumption remains positive. 1st October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Economic weakness spreads to Germany The latest survey indicators seem to have confirmed that the euro-zone’s feeble recovery has already passed its peak. September’s fall in the composite PMI, for example, left it consistent with a... 1st October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Investors face up to “new norm” for EM growth Investors have started to face up to the prospect that previous hopes of a significant rebound in EM growth are likely to be disappointed. But while the new normal for EM growth is going to be much... 1st October 2014 · 1 min read
