Europe Economics Update Precautionary credit line may not be sufficient for Greece The Greek Government appears to have backtracked from plans of a “clean exit” from its EU bail-out programme in December, but it might still be over-estimating the extent to which it can finance... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the strong dollar a threat to the US stock market? Although the US stock market has rebounded in recent weeks, one development that could cap its upside is a further rally in the dollar. A strengthening currency causes exporters to lose market share... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Gold referendum highlights limits of SNB policy Fears that a referendum over the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB’s) gold holdings might prevent the Bank defending its ceiling for the Swiss franc may be overblown. But the referendum highlights political... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Stronger activity data increasingly hard to ignore With QE3 done and dusted, the Fed has emphasised that the incoming economic data will determine when interest rates first rise. Our forecasts that the unemployment rate will fall faster than the Fed... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Cooling housing market won’t freeze the recovery Given the perceived boost to the economic recovery from strong gains in house prices over the past year or so, signs that the housing market is beginning to cool may raise concerns that the overall... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Five challenges for Romania’s next president Victor Ponta looks set to win the presidential election in Romania on Sunday at a time when the economy is being buffeted by renewed weakness in key euro-zone trading partners. The economic outlook... 30th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Oct.) October’s EC Business and Consumer Survey suggests that the euro-zone economy got off to a weak start in Q4, after broadly stagnating in Q3. 30th October 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Little reaction in the Gulf to fall in oil prices The slide in oil prices this month has raised concerns in some quarters that the Gulf States will need to tighten fiscal policy. But while the prospect of this has been talked about in Oman, lower oil... 30th October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s central bank tries to claw back lost credibility The surprise decision by Brazil’s central bank to raise interest rates now, rather than waiting for Dilma Rousseff’s new government to take shape, is an early sign that tackling inflation could be... 30th October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary conditions set to remain loose The likely end of the Fed’s asset purchases under QE3 does little to change the bigger picture that global monetary conditions remain very loose. 29th October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Markets suffer as Brazil elections deliver more of the same After a rollercoaster campaign that at times had promised to deliver a much-needed shift in economic policy, presidential elections in Brazil ultimately delivered more of the same. Dilma Rousseff was... 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia election: return to political stability to support growth The victory for Nidaa Tounes in Tunisia’s parliamentary election is likely to raise hopes that economic reforms are in the pipeline. Perhaps more importantly, the fact that the election passed... 27th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Oct.) The CBI Distributive Trades Survey provided an encouraging sign that retail sales picked up in October following weather-related weakness last month. What’s more, the prospects for consumer spending... 27th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) September’s euro-zone monetary data showed further signs of improvement but with lending growth still negative and, given the need for some of the weakest banks to raise further capital, the sector is... 27th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine: encouraging election doesn’t end political crisis The victory of pro-Western, reformist parties in yesterday’s election was perhaps the best that could have been hoped for. But with the economy in freefall and the conflict in the east of the country... 27th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Oct.) October’s fall in Ifo business sentiment was a blow to hopes that the German recovery should resume at the end of the year and will add to pressure on the Government there to consider a fiscal boost. 27th October 2014 · 1 min read
