Emerging Europe Economics Update Three political risks to watch out for in 2015 2014 was the year that political risk returned to Emerging Europe and the political and economic fallout from the Russia-Ukraine crisis is likely to reverberate this year too. But we think there are... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Eight questions for 2015 We’ll start 2015 with some good news: having slowed to a five-year low of just 1.5% in 2014, we expect GDP growth in Latin America to accelerate this year. The bad news is that the pick-up is likely... 5th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Grexit dangers darken euro-zone outlook There is growing evidence that, even before the latest drop in oil prices, the US shale oil revolution had started to weigh on oil producers in Latin America. Oil exports to the US from three of the... 5th January 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Dec.) The decline in small business confidence to a seven-month low in December underlines that economic momentum in Japan remains sluggish. 24th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Russia spirals into crisis The Russian ruble has stabilised in recent days, but only after the central bank introduced a raft of measures to limit ruble liquidity – including a massive hike in interest rates – and, perhaps more... 22nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly A predictably weak year The euro-zone economy behaved largely as we anticipated in 2014, with growth remaining distinctly sluggish, inflation falling, the ECB forced into more policy action and the euro weakening. The... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What should we expect in 2015? Wage growth is set to remain sluggish next year and, with households also likely to be trying to rebuild their savings, we expect consumer spending to be subdued. In turn, this suggests that GDP... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Dec.) December’s German Ifo survey provided some comfort that recent overseas events have not yet hit the economy, but remains consistent with only weak rates of expansion. 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Lessons from 1998 There are more differences than similarities between the current crisis in Russia and the crisis in 1998, but one point in common is that both have their roots in severe strains in the country’s... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack 2015 shaping up to be another lacklustre year The turmoil in Russia and broader weakness in EM financial markets has brought a subdued end to the year. For 2014 as a whole, the latest data point to aggregate GDP growth of less than 5% for the... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What next for Russia? Last night’s emergency interest rate hike in Russia has raised more questions that it has provided answers. Part of the renewed pressure on the ruble today stems from oil prices, which have fallen... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (December) The flash manufacturing PMI was broadly unchanged in December and suggests that the sector remains in recovery mode. 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Are markets right to be worried about Syriza? The prospect of gaining power has prompted Greece’s anti-bailout party Syriza to soften its stance on some issues. But markets are still right to be worried, given uncertainty around its plans for... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus What should Mr Abe do to kick-start growth? If the right policies were followed, we estimate that Japan’s potential growth rate could rise by around one percentage point. Measures to slow the shrinkage of the labour force and to reduce the... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q4) Today’s Tankan survey suggests that Japan’s economy stabilised in the fourth quarter, but a rapid recovery is not on the cards. 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Small-cap equities may not lag behind for long The unusual gap that has opened up between the economic performance of small firms and the performance of small-cap equity indices is more likely to be closed by a rise in equity prices. After all... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
