Global Markets Update Are markets too sanguine about contagion from Greece? Despite concerns over Greece’s future within the euro-zone, the yields on government bonds in the rest of peripheral and southern Europe have generally remained low and close to those of Germany. This... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Rise of populist parties unlikely to end austerity Syriza’s victory in the Greek general election may increase the influence of anti-austerity parties elsewhere in the euro-zone, most notably Podemos in Spain. But resistance from Germany seems set to... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Jan.) The renewed fall in small business confidence this month underlines the fragility of the economic recovery. 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Will the recovery fizzle out in 2015? While the UK’s economic recovery has shown some signs of flagging recently, we think its best days may still lie ahead. Admittedly, it has depended on some unsustainable sources and the general... 26th January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Electricity shortages to stymie South Africa’s recovery There are encouraging signs that South Africa’s power shortages will ease in the medium term. But this year, they are likely to continue to drag on economic growth. 26th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jan.) January’s rise in the German Ifo index suggests that fears about the effect of the Greek crisis on the German economy have so far been offset by the perceived benefits of a weaker euro and ECB... 26th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Syriza victory threatens to reignite crisis Syriza’s resounding victory in the Greek general election looks set to result in a protracted period of heightened uncertainty over Greece’s future inside the euro-zone and could threaten to reignite... 26th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What to look for in Sunday’s Greek election In this Update, we outline some of the key points to look for in this Sunday’s crucial Greek election. While much is likely to depend on coalition negotiations early next week, we suspect that the... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will Greece’s election be more important for EZ bonds than QE? While the ECB’s announcement of a bolder-than-expected programme of quantitative easing (QE) has driven the spreads of troubled sovereign bonds even lower, we are sceptical that this will last given... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The implications of King Abdullah’s passing The passing away of Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah has raised concerns about the issue of succession and whether this might lead to disruptions to policymaking in the Kingdom. The key point, though, is... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (January) The flash manufacturing PMI was virtually unchanged in January, and still points to a solid recovery in the sector. 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update What impact will the general election have on the housing market? General elections have in the past had no discernable impact on the housing market. While it can be argued that the elevated level of uncertainty surrounding this year’s election will change that... 22nd January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Oiling the wheels Global growth has slowed in recent months, but we still expect world GDP to expand by just over 3% this year and next. The slump in oil prices should have a positive impact overall, even though it... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Crisis 2.0? The onset of deflation in the euro-zone and the recent developments in Greece have served as powerful reminders of the lasting effects of the region’s debt crisis. The ECB will seek to tackle... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW & Euro-zone Bank Lending Survey (Jan.) January’s rise in ZEW investor sentiment showed that confidence in the German economy was holding up well despite fears for Greece. But investors may take a dimmer view following this week’s Greek... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update How are economic reforms progressing? Prime Minister Modi’s use of four executive orders since the end of December has added some impetus to the reform agenda, which has arguably seen the biggest strides made in areas of tax and foreign... 19th January 2015 · 1 min read
