Africa Economics Focus Tougher times ahead after Nigeria’s election Next week’s general election in Nigeria looks likely to be the most closely contested since the country returned to democracy in 1999. The waning in President Goodluck Jonathan’s popularity since he... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Modest recovery continues despite Greek crisis Euro-zone economic activity has continued to recover despite the troubles in Greece. For now, worries about the crisis seem to have been offset by the benefits of a weaker euro and falling producer... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update African Eurobond debts manageable, for now The issuance of over USD18bn worth of US dollar denominated debt by Sub-Saharan African (SSA) states has raised concerns about the region’s rising level of indebtedness, but we believe that most of... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global growth rate set to recover After slowing in the second half of last year, global growth is likely to gather pace again in the coming quarters. Admittedly, the drop in oil prices since last summer has prompted energy companies... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Has the housing boom run its course? We are not forecasting a return to boom conditions in 2015. However, we do think that the outlook for both house prices and housing market activity is rather stronger than is typically believed, as a... 4th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Fiscal and monetary policy after the election CPI inflation looks set to turn negative in the next few months. Whilst we expect the UK’s period of deflation to be short and shallow, there are a number of factors which nonetheless should mean that... 3rd February 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Tax on profits held abroad could be worth 1.5% of GDP The funds raised by President Obama’s proposals to tax foreign earnings could, in theory, provide a 1.5% boost to GDP. Despite tax reform being a shared goal of both parties, however, there is no... 2nd February 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Shrinking workforce not a major threat to growth The release of figures showing that China’s working age population continued to fall last year has revived concerns about demographic headwinds to China’s growth. In this China Watch we discuss why... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Markets still complacent on Greece’s debt challenge Our concerns that the markets have been under-estimating the challenge faced by the new Syriza-led Greek Government and the Troika in trying to reach a mutually acceptable solution to Greece’s debt... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s surprise rate cut a response to political pressures Today’s surprise decision by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to cut its one-week repo rate by 200bp, to 15.0%, reflects political pressures rather than economic reality. The decision was premised on... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ pinning hopes on strong Shunto wage deal A strong rise in base pay in the spring wage negotiations (Shunto) would help convince the Bank of Japan that the current weakness in inflation will prove temporary. A tight labour market and strong... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Ukrainian default looking inevitable News that Ukraine’s government plans to hold “discussions” with bondholders has been widely interpreted as a precursor to some form of default, and dollar bond yields have jumped accordingly in recent... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Jan.) January’s small rise in the EC Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) did little to change the picture of very subdued growth in the euro-zone at the start of this year. 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Dec.) & anti-crisis measures The key point that stands out in December’s activity data for Russia is the sharp jump in retail sales growth. However, this reflects panic buying as the ruble collapsed at the end of last year. Hence... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Jokowi’s first 100 days: a promising start Indonesia’s new president, Joko Widodo (known as Jokowi) has made an encouraging start to hispresidency. But tougher challenges lie ahead, while a corruption scandal is raising questions about... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update ECB QE to drive European commercial property yields lower still The real impact of the ECB’s new QE programme on GDP growth and occupier demand will initially be stymied by the Greek election results and the ensuing debt re-negotiations. However, investors will be... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
