Europe Economics Weekly Now is the euro low enough? The drop in the euro to a 12-year low against the US dollar should clearly provide some support to both activity and inflation in the euro-zone. But it would be wrong to think that its effects are... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the pound riding for a fall? Sterling remains vulnerable to concerns about a hung parliament, EU exit and the current account deficit. But it is hard to tell when these concerns will bite, if they will at all. And in the meantime... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will Greece & deflation re-ignite the euro-zone crisis? The combination of Greece’s renewed problems and the onset of deflation is a very toxic one for the euro-zone. At best, it is likely to keep economic growth in the region fairly subdued. At worst, it... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Business Outlook Survey (Q1) The reported deterioration in business conditions in today’s Business Outlook Survey partly reflects seasonal factors. Nonetheless, the survey suggests that economic activity will remain sluggish in... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Political crisis now biggest threat to Brazil’s economy The corruption scandal at state-owned oil company, Petrobras, has developed over the past week or so into a full-blown national political crisis that, in our view, is now the biggest headwind facing... 11th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine’s debt restructuring: five key questions It looks all but inevitable that Ukraine will need to restructure its public debts, but there’s a huge amount of uncertainty about what the restructuring might look like. To shed some light, in this... 11th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Without tighter rules, migration to stay strong We doubt that the recent strength in net migration will be temporary. The recent rise has been primarily driven by increased immigration from Europe, reflecting its weak economy compared to the UK and... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Next CBK Governor to face less pressure to start tightening cycle It looks more likely than not that Dr. Haron Sirima will replace Prof. Njuguna Ndung’u as Governor of the Central Bank of Kenya, and his appointment is likely be welcomed by the markets as a safe pair... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Is Japan’s electronics sector doomed? The travails of Japan’s electronics giants are not indicative of a general demise of the sector. In aggregate, the electronics industry is in fact doing quite well. 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Consumers beginning to spend their oil windfall Household spending has picked up sharply in response to the collapse in oil prices. In January, the growth rate of underlying retail sales in advanced economies reached its highest level since 2006... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Misery index on track for 50-year low Households are considerably better off than they were just a year or two ago. Indeed, the so-called “misery index” – a sum of the prevailing inflation and unemployment rates – has halved over the last... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Deflationary pressures remain intense Although headline consumer price inflation rose from -0.6% to -0.3% in February, this was driven entirely by a rise in energy prices as oil prices reversed some of their recent falls. Core inflation... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Capital Expenditure (Q4) The Ministry of Finance’s survey on corporate finances confirms that business investment stagnated last quarter. 2nd March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is a recovery in exports finally underway? One feature that the recovery has been lacking for a long time is a pick-up in exports. But last week’s GDP figures offered some encouragement that the much-anticipated rebalancing of the economy is... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Slim hopes for land reform Amid the wider interest in what will be unveiled in the FY15/16 budget on Saturday, prospects for the rest of the current session of parliament have slipped under the radar. A number of issues that... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Unemployment, Household Spending & Consumer Prices (Jan.) Industrial output surged last month and the job market remains tight despite a jump in the unemployment rate. However, consumer spending is sluggish and the ongoing slowdown in inflation increases the... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
