UK Economics Update Election set to have bigger market impact than previous ones Recent UK general elections have barely affected markets and this one has yet to have a material impact too. Nonetheless, we could still see a big movement in asset prices in this election’s wake. 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can Greece default and stay in the euro? Suggestions that Greece can default but remain inside the euro-zone overlook the fact that Greece needs both a very large debt write-down and a more competitive currency. 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW (Apr.) April’s fall in German ZEW investor sentiment suggests that fears over Greece are starting to dent confidence in the German economic recovery. 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Why isn’t gold doing better despite “Grexit” risks? The price of gold has dipped below $1,200 per ounce again today, prompting some to ask whether a further escalation of the crisis in Greece would provide much support to the precious metal after all... 20th April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How has investment fared since the crisis? One of the most disappointing features of advanced economies in recent years has been the weakness of investment. In part, this is because investment tends to mirror the performance of the economy as... 20th April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Greek crisis still threatens global markets The latest acts in the Greek tragedy have begun to unsettle financial markets again, although we think there are potentially much bigger moves to come. Indeed, markets still appear to complacent both... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Does the economic outlook hinge on who wins? The fiscal rules proposed by the Conservative and Labour parties in their manifestos last week suggested that the latter could borrow an extra £130bn more than the Tories over the next five years if... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will QE spur a revival in investment? The risks of a Greek default and possible euro-zone exit rose further last week as its creditors made clear that a bailout disbursement was unlikely in the near term. Despite this, ECB President Mario... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek crisis may finally be coming to a head The Greek crisis has reached a new crunch point amid signs that the Eurogroup will not grant desperately needed financial aid after next week’s meeting. Greece might resort to IOUs and/or capital... 16th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Don’t underestimate the economy’s hidden slack Economists and policymakers are significantly overestimating the permanent damage inflicted to the economy from the financial crisis and recession. We still think that the economy has the potential to... 16th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Fiscal paths not as different as manifestos imply The political parties’ manifestos have confirmed that the scale of the fiscal squeeze could be very different depending on which of them is in power. But there are various factors that will probably... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update India overtaking China – what is all the fuss about? Among the more headline-grabbing developments in the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook is that the Fund is now forecasting India’s economy to grow faster than China’s in 2015 and 2016. But putting... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update French tax breaks seem unlikely to revive investment Investment has been the weakest link in France’s feeble economic recovery so far. But it is not clear that the French Government’s latest plans will alter this picture dramatically. For that, a... 14th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Mar.) UK inflation held at zero in March, but it could yet dip into negative territory at some point in the coming months. But regardless of whether inflation turns negative or not, the big picture is that... 14th April 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) The Bank of Japan now owns more Japanese government bonds than private pension funds and insurance companies combined. However, with the government pension fund continuing to shed bonds, and usage of... 14th April 2015 · 1 min read
