UK Economics Update Tory win removes risk of prolonged political uncertainty With the Conservatives on course to achieve an overall majority, the UK general election result is a surprisingly market-friendly outcome and removes the risk that the economy suffers a prolonged... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Consumers yet to spend their oil windfall... GDP growth was faster in the euro-zone than in the US in Q1, but we don’t expect this to be the start of a new trend. The single currency area has received a temporary boost from the fall in the euro... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Why aren’t consumers spending their extra cash? The recent softness of retail sales suggests that consumers are saving their windfall from lower energy prices. However, there are still good reasons to think that the money will end up being spent. 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Rise in gilt yields does not reflect election concerns Although gilt yields have risen over the last few weeks, this seems to have reflected easing fears of deflation, not growing concerns about the outcome of the general election. So with little... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Few signs of election uncertainty undermining recovery Although GDP posted its smallest quarterly rise since 2012 in the first quarter of this year, we doubt that the economy is on the cusp of a renewed slowdown. The business surveys suggest that Q1’s 0.3... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Post-election negotiations unlikely to redraw fiscal outlook Our Election Preview, published 30th April, contains our detailed analysis on the election. Here we answer questions clients may have about the possible series of events over the coming days and weeks... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Euro-zone outperformance will be short-lived The euro-zone economy looks likely to have outgrown both those of the US and UK in the first quarter of the year, for the first time since Q1 2011. But the outperformance looks set to be short-lived... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Four reasons to worry about the UK election The UK general election on Thursday is the most hotly contested in recent history. There are many plausible outcomes, most of which present different threats to the UK’s financial markets. We review... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Election just one reason to keep rates on hold We doubt that the Monetary Policy Committee would want to change monetary policy so close to a general election, especially when a new government might not even have been formed by the time of this... 5th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Recovery should endure political uncertainty With a hung parliament appearing overwhelming likely, Thursday’s general election looks set to be followed by days, if not weeks, of political horse-trading, and whatever government is finally formed... 1st May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Renewed yen weakness and Nikkei strength lie ahead We remain positive on the outlook for Japanese equities and negative on the yen, despite the Bank of Japan’s failure to announce additional monetary stimulus today. 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Election 2015 Preview The economic outlook will not turn on a sixpence after the election. Granted, the election may mark only the start of a period of political uncertainty and, on paper, the differences between Labour’s... 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production (Mar.) The decline in industrial production in March was much less pronounced than expected and suggests that GDP growth remained solid last quarter. As such, it would provide an excuse for the Bank of Japan... 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update French business surveys point to weak economic recovery France’s economic outlook appears particularly uncertain at the moment, with the business surveys painting a mixed picture. But even the most positive of these surveys still points to fairly sluggish... 29th April 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The implications of the Saudi government reshuffle The reshuffle at the top of Saudi Arabia’s government probably has more political than economic implications. In particular, it means that any hopes for a swift end to the Yemen conflict have probably... 29th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Apr.) The European Commission’s monthly Business and Consumer survey for April echoed the message from some other recent surveys that the crisis in Greece might be starting to constrain the euro-zone... 29th April 2015 · 1 min read
