Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (May) The European Commission’s monthly Business and Consumer survey for May offered some assurance that the modest euro-zone recovery has continued despite the ongoing Greek crisis. 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How vulnerable is the ECB to a Greek default? The ECB’s exposure to Greece is not huge and ultimately lies with the euro-zone governments that would have to recapitalise it. But a Greek default to the ECB would be a serious blow to the Bank’s... 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Has Modi already missed his best opportunity? Prime Minister Modi’s first year in office was a mixed bag. The pace of economic reform will need to be stepped up in his second year to justify the investor enthusiasm that greeted his election... 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Butter meltdown highlights policy failures Japan’s butter shortage is the result of agricultural policy failures. It should strengthen the argument that agreement to scale back protectionist measures in the ongoing talks on the Trans-Pacific... 27th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The UK economy after the election While the Conservatives’ victory removed some of the uncertainty hanging over the economy, it has some more worrying implications – such as the renewed fiscal squeeze and the EU referendum. But we... 27th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Has the ECB saved the euro-zone again? After saving the day with its pledge to “do whatever it takes” in 2012, the ECB has arguably now brought on a recovery with its quantitative easing programme. But we expect the policy’s effects to... 27th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Africa will struggle to capitalise on youthful demographics Sub-Saharan Africa’s youthful demographic profile is often cited as a potential engine of economic development, but we believe that this argument significantly overstates the economic benefits of... 27th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Law and Justice victory raises populism concerns in Poland Victory for Andrzej Duda of the Law and Justice Party in Sunday’s Polish presidential election has raised concerns about a shift towards more populist policymaking and taken some of the shine off... 26th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Stronger German recovery depends on export revival Last week’s data gave mixed signals about Germany. On the one hand, the second GDP release showed that Q1’s slowdown belied a strong domestic economy and May’s Ifo survey pointed to a pick-up in... 22nd May 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand one year on from the coup One year on from the military coup in Thailand, political order has been restored and the economy has returned to growth. But with the country no closer to a lasting solution to its long-running... 21st May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central Europe bucks the EM slowdown The raft of preliminary first quarter GDP data showed that, in contrast to most of the emerging world, growth in Central Europe strengthened. This came on the back of easing fiscal austerity, looser... 21st May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC underplays inflation and current account concerns The press release accompanying today’s Turkish MPC meeting, at which interest rates were left unchanged, suggests that policymakers are increasingly concerned about the inflation outlook. But we still... 20th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Unfunded pledges give Osborne a tough choice The Conservatives have made their job of eliminating the budget deficit by 2018/19 even harder by announcing a number of unfunded policy pledges in the run-up to the election. But the fact that they... 20th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Would a referendum end the Greek crisis? A public referendum could help to break the current deadlock between Greece and its creditors. But it might only be a short-term solution and much could depend on its precise purpose and phrasing. 18th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Is globalisation dead? The past four years have seen the slowest pace of global economic integration since the Second World War. With trade talks stalled and most parts of the world already integrated into the global... 18th May 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Weakness of consumption not due to new health care rules The introduction of Obamacare doesn't appear to have had any lasting downward impact on medical care consumption. Spending did decline in the first few months of last year, but it has rebounded... 15th May 2015 · 1 min read
