Japan Economics Update Is Finance Minister Aso the Bank of Japan’s new oracle? Finance Minister Aso has been downplaying the chances of further monetary stimulus. But given that Japan’s government has previously argued that “surprise” is a key element of effective monetary... 19th October 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swiss election doesn’t change gloomy economic outlook The shift to the right in yesterday’s Swiss election will mean continued resistance to immigration and perhaps more business-friendly policies. But exchange rate developments are more important for... 19th October 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What would a Scioli presidency mean for Argentina? Daniel Scioli, the candidate of Argentina’s left-wing ruling coalition, seems on course to win the presidential election in the first round on 25th October. His plans for the economy have been... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Should we fear a shift to populism in Poland? Rising support for the opposition Law and Justice party ahead of Poland’s parliamentary election on 25th October has raised concerns about a move towards more populist policymaking. We think that any... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Capital spending to remain sluggish A range of indicators suggest that business investment dropped for the second straight quarter in Q3. However, the Bank of Japan is continuing to argue that the outlook for capital expenditure is... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Official GDP data set to remain political tool We shouldn’t expect China to have a statistical system as robust as those in the developed world. But the problems in China go beyond those normally found in an emerging economy. The biggest is that... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Key reform vote not Greece's last major challenge The Greek parliament looks set to pass the next set of reforms needed to unlock further bailout funds and potentially open the door to a debt restructuring. But with yet more reforms needed, the... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What to expect from Egypt’s parliamentary elections Egyptians are scheduled to return to the polls this month to elect a new parliament, which is likely to emerge as a body that is largely aligned with President al-Sisi. As we explain in this Watch, in... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Bailout package for power sector would have limited impact A bailout for India’s heavily-indebted electricity providers would be a positive step, but there are reasons to doubt the effectiveness of any rescue deal. For a start, any package is likely to be... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly A Trans-Pacific Partnership deal wouldn’t improve outlook The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement, even if it was ratified soon, would be unlikely to improve Canada’s near-term economic prospects. The initial effects of the new trade agreement... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What would a Brexit mean for the devolved regions? While we think that the overall UK economy would do well either inside or outside the European Union, a Brexit could still have some significant implications for the devolved regions – most obviously... 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is the Greek crisis finally over? This Focus takes a detailed look at the outlook for Greece after the implementation of its third bailout and concludes that the country’s six-year crisis is far from over. Indeed, a Grexit is still... 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus What would Brexit mean for the UK economy? We doubt that the UK’s outlook hinges on the Brexit question. Things have changed a lot since 1973, when joining the European Union (EU) was a big deal for the UK. We think that the UK economy will do... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update TPP is potentially a “big deal” but only over the long term The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement which was announced today may not see the light of day for some years. Assuming, however, that it is eventually implemented, it should have large and... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Election result doesn’t alter Portugal’s challenging outlook While the re-election of Portugal’s centre-right coalition appeared to be an endorsement of the austerity stance it has taken, its failure to secure a parliamentary majority means that it may struggle... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Aug.) & Final PMIs (Sep.) August’s euro-zone retail sales data suggest that the consumer recovery remained on track. And the final PMIs point to quarterly GDP growth remaining at around 0.4% in Q3. But September’s monthly fall... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
