Latin America Economics Update Venezuela elections: turning point or tipping point? Venezuela’s opposition looks set to triumph in legislative elections on Sunday but, unlike last month’s election upset in Argentina, this won’t trigger a shift towards more orthodox policymaking. If... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Drag on growth from anti-graft measures easing Three years on, there is no sign that China’s anti-corruption campaign is being eased, but its drag on economic growth is fading. 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Capital Expenditure (Q3) The strong rebound in capital spending excluding software last quarter suggests that GDP may have been flat last quarter instead of shrinking slightly as initially estimated. 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update First thoughts on Russia’s sanctions on Turkey The economic impact of the Russian sanctions on Turkey announced this weekend will, in general, probably be limited. Our best estimate of the maximum losses to the Turkish economy is around 0.5% of... 30th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Nov.) November’s EC consumer and business survey supported the message from other survey indicators released earlier this week that after Q3’s slowdown the eurozone’s economic recovery may have regained... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update New bankruptcy code would be a big step forward Plans to overhaul India’s archaic bankruptcy laws, due to be discussed in the upcoming winter session of parliament, would be a major step towards creating a more favourable business climate and... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Autumn Statement 2015: Osborne targets BTL again With little additional detail on business rates, and the Starter Homes Initiative simply a restatement of a policy announced last year, Help to Buy London and the Chancellor’s latest assault on BTL... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Nov.) Following the uptick in yesterday’s flash manufacturing PMI, the renewed rise in small business confidence in November adds to the evidence that activity will rebound this quarter. 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Retailers set for more than just a Black Friday boost Heavy discounting on the high street and online on Black Friday is likely to provide a bigger boost to spending this year than last. What’s more, the rise in real earnings, confidence and employment... 24th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Nov.) & GDP Breakdown (Q3) November’s German Ifo survey supported the message from other survey indicators that the economy is still growing at a healthy pace. And the breakdown of Q3 GDP showed that, unusually for Germany... 24th November 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Macri victory in Argentine elections brightens economic outlook The election of pro-business candidate Mauricio Macri as Argentina’s new president is likely to herald a much-needed shift towards orthodox economic policymaking. In the near term, this is likely to... 23rd November 2015 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack State elections, strikes, and civil servant salaries Prime Minister Modi has spent much of November on official visits to the UK and Singapore, but a number of domestic issues have made this a month that he will want to forget. 23rd November 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Corporate balance sheets appear healthy The rise in credit spreads this year has been interpreted by some as a signal that the corporate sector is dangerously over-leveraged. At an aggregate level we can find very little evidence of this... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: change is nigh Opinion polls are pointing to a narrow victory for pro-reform candidate Mauricio Macri in Sunday’s presidential election in Argentina and, if he prevails, the outlook for the economy would undoubtedly... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Abenomics has not altered Japan’s long-term outlook Output may have contracted again last quarter, but Japan’s growth has actually been fairly healthy by past standards since Mr Abe returned to power, despite stronger demographic headwinds. But the... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the Paris attacks loosen Europe’s fiscal shackles? While fiscal authorities may tolerate increased security spending by some governments after the Paris terror attacks, suggestions that Europe’s budget rules will be swept aside are over the top. 18th November 2015 · 1 min read
