India Economics Update What measures are needed to revive the banking sector? Comments last week from RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan that local banks are in need of "deep surgery" has refocused attention on the ailing sector. Large-scale capital injections, increased private... 17th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How would Brexit affect the rest of the EU? We have argued that both the potential costs and benefits to the UK of leaving the EU would be small over the medium term. But this is not a zero-sum game and while we doubt that Brexit would have any... 15th February 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Political risk adds to economic headwinds A legal case against President Jacob Zuma may further destabilise South Africa’s already febrile political situation. Increased political risk poses a very real threat to the country’s struggling... 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Jan.) Following a fairly disappointing Christmas period, January’s BRC sales figures suggested that consumers started the year on a strong footing. But with temporary props set to fade, spending growth in... 9th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly EU referendum will delay rate hike, but not until 2018 The draft EU deal published last week has left the “Brexit” referendum looking likely to occur in June this year. What’s more, on the basis of the latest polls, it looks set to be a close vote. That... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Government bonds – is Japan the next Switzerland? The 10-year Japanese government bond yield has fallen to a record low of less than 0.1% following the Bank of Japan’s decision to cut its deposit rate to -0.1%. We now forecast that the 10-year JGB... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Should we worry about the Irish election? Given the political turbulence after recent elections in Spain and Portugal, there are some concerns about the potential outcome of the Irish election, now scheduled for just three weeks’ time. But... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update EU draft deal leaves Brexit in the balance Today’s publication of a draft deal on the UK’s EU negotiations is another step towards a referendum as soon as June. The modest proposed reforms will probably leave the vote very close. If the UK did... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is France in a state of economic emergency? President François Hollande’s declaration in a speech earlier this month that France is in a “state of economic emergency” was hardly reassuring. But, if it’s even possible, we would actually argue... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Why are Japanese firms struggling in China? The fact that Japanese firms have fared much worse in China than their competitors since the yen started weakening in 2012 suggests that their competitiveness has waned. However, firms have at least... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Dec.) The 5.1% m/m decline in durable goods was due primarily to a sharp decline in the notoriously volatile aircraft component. Nevertheless, the details suggest that equipment investment shrank in the... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Jan.) January’s EC consumer and business survey supported the message from other survey indicators that the euro-zone’s economy slowed at the start of the year. 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Key challenges await Vietnam’s new leadership Vietnam’s new top leadership team, which has just been unveiled, takes the reins at a key moment for the economy. Although short-term prospects remain good, further reforms are needed for the economy... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Jan.) The drop in small business confidence in January partly reflects seasonal patterns, and the bigger picture is that firms remain fairly upbeat. 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Jan. & Q1) The CBI Industrial Trends Survey for January and Q1 showed that manufacturing didn’t leave its troubles behind in 2015. But the sector’s prospects do appear a little brighter. 25th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus EM debt: recapping the risks The dangers posed by a rapid build-up in EM debt have come back into the spotlight in recent weeks. In this Focus we revisit the lessons from history. Three points stand out – with potentially ominous... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
