Canada Economics Weekly Liberal’s infrastructure spending won’t boost economy The Liberal government’s budget plan to lift the economy over the next two years with close to C$12bn in infrastructure funding will be a tall task, one that we would not count on to produce much... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Feb.) The 2.8% m/m decline in headline durable goods orders in February was partly due to a slump in the volatile commercial aircraft category. But even allowing for that, the details of the report suggest... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt devaluation: assessing the impact on balance sheets The recent devaluation of the Egyptian pound will create winners and losers within the country through its impact on balance sheets. Households and commercial banks stand to gain from a rise in the... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is the euro-zone almost free from austerity? The shift away from growth-sapping austerity in the euro-zone is encouraging. But while fiscal policy may no longer be a drag on economic growth, the planned loosening is unlikely to provide a... 23rd March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus What would a Brexit mean for Scotland? This Thursday marks the date that the Scottish government had pencilled in for “independence day” if Scotland had voted to leave the UK in 2014’s independence referendum. So it seems a particularly... 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Africa: Solid growth, no economic transformation Hopes that African economies will repeat the economic miracles seen in Asia are, for the most part, misplaced. Rapid population growth will deliver reasonable rates of headline GDP growth, but... 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What’s behind the slowdown in capital outflows from Russia? Capital outflows from Russia have slowed markedly in recent quarters and the nature of these outflows has changed too – they are now driven by Russian companies repaying their external debts, rather... 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) The renewed fall in the manufacturing PMI to a three year-low in March underlines that the recent strengthening of the exchange rate is dampening activity in the sector. 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Macri makes big strides in first 100 days but work still to do President Mauricio Macri’s first 100 days in office have seen an impressive range of measures to put Argentina’s fragile balance of payments position on a more sustainable footing. By any reasonable... 21st March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update The risk to the UK housing market isn’t Brexit An out vote in June’s EU referendum could lead to some short-term softening in activity levels and price pressures in the housing market. It could also present another medium-term headwind to raising... 21st March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will Osborne’s big squeeze really happen? Large parts of the Budget were clearly aimed solely at repairing the damage that the OBR’s new economic forecasts did to the Chancellor’s chances of meeting his fiscal target. That said, there is... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Weak start to spring wage negotiations The early results of the Shunto spring wage negotiations have been disappointing to policymakers hoping to see faster wage gains. The major carmakers and electronics firms have agreed smaller base pay... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Investment activity showing tentative signs of improvement The government’s plans to boost capital expenditure should help sustain the recent tentative pick-up in investment activity. But slow movement on the reform front means that a spectacular rebound is... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update NPC puts short-run growth ahead of reform The National People’s Congress has ended today leaving us still feeling confident in our relatively upbeat view of the immediate outlook for the economy. But the leadership’s continued tentative... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Should UK retailers fear a Brexit? The possibility of a Brexit has raised a number of worries for British retailers, including the prospect of falling consumer demand and rising imported goods costs. But while the short-term impact of... 14th March 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Jan.) Today’s data on machinery orders suggest that capital spending will continue to expand this quarter. While a near-term slowdown is likely, we expect the recovery in capital expenditure to resume... 14th March 2016 · 1 min read
