Asia Economics Focus Will the Philippines continue to grow strongly after Aquino? Much is at stake as the Philippines prepares to go to the polls on 9th May. The current president, Benigno Aquino, who is forbidden from standing again, deserves much of the credit for turning the... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greece/IMF spat underlines fragility of bailout The public spat between Greece and the IMF underlines the fragility of the country’s latest bailout deal and demonstrates that its long-term future inside the currency union is still far from assured... 4th April 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update What are the chances of a deal in Doha to freeze oil output? Comments from a leading Saudi Arabian official on Friday have led markets to reassess the prospect of a deal being done in Doha later this month to freeze OPEC and Russian oil production. In our view... 4th April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Prince’s comments don’t indicate major change Comments today by Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in an interview with Bloomberg confirm our view that Saudi policymakers are comfortable with a period of low oil prices. What’s... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Mar.) Another dismal UK Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey suggests that the sector is still struggling to put its troubles last year behind it. But the manufacturing sector’s prospects should begin to look... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q1) The pronounced drop in the headline index of today’s Tankan survey underlines that the recent strengthening of the yen has damaged business confidence and suggests that the Bank of Japan will announce... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How big a threat does rising populism pose to globalisation? Growing support for populist politicians and political parties in a number of countries has fuelled fears that the global economy is set for an era of greater protectionism. But while world trade is... 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Cypriot success story comes with caveats Cyprus’ exit from its bailout and budding economic recovery are good news. But major challenges lie ahead in addressing non-performing loans and generating growth outside the financial services sector... 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update State elections take centre stage The raft of upcoming state elections in India are likely to have an important bearing on economic policy at the local level. But perhaps more significant, the outcome of the state elections could be... 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is there still a “Brexit premium” on UK assets? Despite the recent recovery in most UK markets, there is still evidence that they are bracing themselves for a possible Brexit. Accordingly, we think there is scope for markets to move significantly... 30th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey, German HICP (Mar.) March’s falls in euro-zone business and consumer confidence support other evidence that the region’s slow recovery is losing pace. 30th March 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Where next for Myanmar? Today’s handover from military to civilian rule in Myanmar marks another welcome step forward in the country’s political development. But the new government must overcome a number of major challenges... 30th March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update PMDB exit leaves Dilma on the brink According to widespread reports, Brazil’s largest political party, the PMDB, will later today announce that it plans to leave government – leaving President Rousseff closer to impeachment, and paving... 29th March 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Mar.) The rebound in small business confidence in March is due to seasonal patterns. In fact, the survey points to falling industrial output. 29th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly More than just red flag waving from the FPC soon? The Financial Policy Committee (FPC) had a lot on its plate at last week’s meeting, with concerns about the impact of a Brexit only adding to the long list of existing risks to financial stability... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Liberal’s infrastructure spending won’t boost economy The Liberal government’s budget plan to lift the economy over the next two years with close to C$12bn in infrastructure funding will be a tall task, one that we would not count on to produce much... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
