US Economics Focus The election and its implications for the economy and markets The most likely outcome of the elections on November 8 th is that Hillary Clinton will be the next President with the Republicans maintaining control of both the House and Senate. But we wouldn’t... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Mood improves but Brexit fears still evident Over the past month, UK equities have continued to recover, while corporate bond spreads have narrowed, bolstered by the general improvement in sentiment in global markets after the turmoil around the... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) The 0.3% m/m decline in retail sales was slightly weaker than consensus expectations and was mainly due to a 2.1% m/m decline in auto sales. More importantly, while the 0.1% m/m increase in control... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What might Brexit mean for European property? It is most likely that the UK will vote to stay in the EU. However, in the event of a ‘leave’ vote, it is not necessarily the case that European commercial property investment would be immediately... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Buhari’s Beijing deal overblown Media reports have overstated importance of the deals signed this week between Nigeria and China. The announced deals provide little support for Nigeria’s ailing economy. 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: notes from the ground Concerns about the deepening political crisis understandably dominated our conversations during a trip to Brazil this week, with a growing number of local market participants now warning of complete... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Recovery to weather referendum uncertainty well Although the EU referendum is less than three months away, its impact on the economy has so far been relatively modest. And if the UK votes to stay, activity could subsequently rebound. Admittedly... 11th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru’s election signals continuation of market-friendly policies The early results of Peru’s presidential election suggest that the race will go to a run-off on 5th June. But given that both leading candidates are likely to continue with the current government’s... 11th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Resignation of Ukrainian PM reignites concerns over IMF deal The resignation of Ukraine’s prime minister on Sunday, coming alongside waning support for the government, will reignite concerns over the future of the country’s frozen IMF programme. While for now... 11th April 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Where do the risks lie? Financial markets across Emerging Asia have rebounded in recent months as investors have become more confident over the short-term economic outlook for the region. However, as we make clear in our... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Brexit uncertainty to keep MPC on hold for a while yet Weaker-than-anticipated inflation, lingering uncertainty in global financial markets and concerns about the impact that the EU referendum is having on the real economy means that this month’s interest... 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Is the grass greener in Tokyo? We expect Tokyo’s economy to outperform the rest of Japan in coming years, largely because demographic prospects in the capital are brighter. One consequence is that house prices in Tokyo should... 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Fuel crisis another blow to struggling economy Government efforts to end Nigeria’s fuel shortage offer a temporary reprieve rather than a lasting solution. Without structural reforms, the economy will continue to be battered by recurrent crises. 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Economy weathering Brexit uncertainty reasonably well We have already written about how Brexit uncertainty is affecting financial markets, with the pound in particular coming under pressure. But it is harder to find concrete evidence that the looming EU... 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru’s election unlikely to mark shift in economic policy The run-up to Peru’s presidential election on Sunday 10th April has been overshadowed by concerns about the neutrality of the country’s electoral authorities. But, whatever the eventual outcome, the... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Feb.) & Final PMIs (Mar.) February’s euro-zone retail sales data point to strong consumer spending growth in Q1, but we doubt that this will be sustained. And the downward revision to March’s Composite PMI added to signs that... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
