Asia Economics Update Where next for the Philippines? Rodrigo Duterte, the mayor of the fourth largest city in the Philippines, looks to have won today’s presidential election by a comfortable margin. Given how little has been said on the campaign trail... 9th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Ireland’s new Government keep the recovery going? The formation of a new Irish government has removed some short-term political uncertainty. And the outlook for the economy over the coming years is fairly bright. That said, the government can do... 9th May 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi reshuffle unlikely to result in drastic change The government reshuffle in Saudi Arabia announced over the weekend is unlikely to herald a major shift in economic policy, although it may strengthen the Kingdom’s commitment to its oil market... 9th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Uncertainty hits business surveys The gloomy tone of this week’s PMI data provided further concrete evidence that the uncertainty generated ahead of the EU referendum is weighing on activity. As with last week’s GDP data, other... 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Thoughts on the rise of political risks in EMs From Brazil to Turkey, and Malaysia to South Africa, political risks are rising in emerging markets. The immediate triggers for unrest vary from country to country but there are some common themes –... 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Is the Philippines about to shoot itself in the foot? The Philippines has been one of the region’s few economic success stories over the past few years. But with the controversial Rodrigo Duterte riding high in the polls ahead of presidential elections... 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Brexit uncertainty starting to take its toll Recent data have brought more concrete signs that uncertainty ahead of the EU referendum on 23rd June is starting to weigh on the economy . GDP in Q1 grew by a modest 0.4% on the quarter and the... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Likely resignation of Turkey’s PM raises authoritarianism fears Reports that Turkey’s Prime Minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, is likely to quit his role amid growing tensions with President Erdogan will reinforce concerns about the shift towards increasingly... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Consumers to weather Brexit uncertainty well Consumers face a tougher year than last, with Brexit uncertainty mounting, austerity increasing and inflation rising. Nonetheless, strong levels of confidence and a resilient labour market should... 4th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How will the Inflation Report deal with Brexit risk? We doubt that the MPC will model separate ‘remain’ and ‘leave’ scenarios in its Inflation Report next week. But Brexit uncertainty will still affect its forecasts via its assumptions about the... 4th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What to expect on EU referendum day and shortly after The latest Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey suggested that the sector began Q2 on a poor footing and will increase fears that the economic recovery will slow further inQ2 as the EU referendum nears... 3rd May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Slowdown not all due to Brexit fears GDP data released this week suggests that Brexit uncertainty probably weighed on growth in Q1. But other factors were at play too. And recent surveys generally indicate that the impact of Brexit... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Putting the retail sector’s productivity problem in context The retail sector’s productivity performance has been better than it has often been given credit for. That said, with the sector particularly hard-hit by the new National Living Wage, boosting... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How much of Q1 slowdown is due to Brexit fears? Softening activity indicators and the moderation in quarterly GDP growth from 0.6% in Q4 to 0.4% in Q1 have fuelled a number of warnings, notably from Chancellor George Osborne and the OECD, that the... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spain will continue to miss its fiscal targets Political uncertainty and slowing growth imply that Spain’s budget deficit targets are too optimistic. As such, Spain looks set to breach the EU’s 3% deficit limit for at least two more years. And, in... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: IMF takes centre stage Events this month have underlined the continuing importance of the IMF for many economies across Africa. On 6 th April the government of Angola requested an IMF bailout to help stabilise an economy... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
