Asia Economics Focus Can Tsai rescue Taiwan’s economy? When Tsai Ing-wen takes over as Taiwan’s next president on 20th May she will inherit an economy that is struggling in the face of falling property prices, rising competition from Chinese companies and... 17th May 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Tax amendments another success for Modi government Recent amendments to the tax treaty between India and Mauritius - the terms of which have made Mauritius the leading source of foreign investment into India - are likely to bring more benefits than... 17th May 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: shift to interest rate corridor not a game changer The Philippines central bank’s (BSP’s) shift towards an interest rate corridor system does not amount to a change in its monetary policy stance. With inflation set to stay low, we think monetary... 16th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian reforms to remain difficult, despite Kudrin’s return The appointment of well-respected former Finance Minister, Alexei Kudrin, as the Deputy Head of the President’s Economic Council has revived hopes that Russia could be set for a new wave of... 16th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How will the MPC respond to the EU referendum? The MPC’s attempt to base its forecasts on the UK remaining in the EU suggests that it believes trade-weighted sterling will rise by around 5% on a vote to stay. But it also implies that it doesn’t... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Slowdown isn’t just about Brexit This week’s dismal trade, industrial production and construction data has further intensified concerns that Brexit uncertainty is having an effect on activity. Nonetheless, they also highlight that... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Is Thailand about to boil over again? Thailand’s already disappointing recovery could be derailed by yet another flare-up of its longstanding political crisis this year, with the controversial draft constitution presenting a clear... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Brexit fears still weighing on sterling despite rally Having fallen since mid-November, trade-weighted sterling has recovered a little over the past month. But with the pound still far below its previous peak, and demand for protection against further... 12th May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Reduced scope to catch up will limit EM and global growth The rapid expansion of emerging economies (EMs) over the past decade or two has reduced the scope for further “catch-up” growth. Along with this, many EMs are likely to continue falling short of their... 12th May 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Low inflation means rates will remain low in the Philippines With the economy growing at a decent pace but inflationary pressures under control, today’s decision by the central bank in the Philippines (BSP) to keep its main policy rate on hold at 4.0% came as... 12th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How big a deal is immigration from the EU? This morning’s ONS release, showing there has been a large recent rise in short-term EU immigration, will probably lead to exaggerated claims about the UK needing to regain control of its borders... 12th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Senate votes to put Dilma on trial, what comes next? After a rollercoaster week, in which impeachment proceedings were suspended and then reinstated, Brazil’s Senate has voted 55-22 to put President Rousseff on trial. A new government under Vice... 12th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is the economic slowdown about more than Brexit? Brexit concerns have not been the only driver of the recent slowdown, suggesting that we should not expect a particularly big rebound in activity if the UK votes to stay in the EU in June. At the same... 11th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: taking stock of the Pemex bailout The Mexican government’s bailout of the country’s state-owned energy company Pemex does not have major fiscal implications. The costs are manageable and non-recurring, so should not require... 11th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Apr.) Following two months of weak official retail sales figures, April’s BRC sales data dented hopes that the weakness would prove temporary. Nonetheless, we still think that talk of a marked collapse in... 10th May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus How big a deal would Brexit be for the world economy? If the UK votes to leave the EU, there would probably be some negative fallout for the UK itself and other European economies due to the resulting uncertainty about their future economic relationship... 9th May 2016 · 1 min read
