UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Polls and bookmakers still at odds Betting markets – which have a good track record of forecasting votes – still appear to consider a vote to remain far more likely than a leave vote, even though opinion polls point to a neck-and-neck... 21st June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will further political uncertainty in Spain derail the recovery? If Spain’s upcoming election returns an anti-austerity coalition to power then there would probably be an immediate rise in government bond yields. But whatever the result, much-needed reforms are... 21st June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What is going to move markets before the Referendum result? It is generally accepted that a vote to leave the EU in this week’s Referendum would have an adverse impact on financial markets, in particular, a drop in the pound. But any movements will crucially... 21st June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will investment income eliminate the current account deficit? The main culprit for the UK’s huge current account deficit is the recent deterioration in the UK’s investment income balance. While we expect some of this to be cyclical, we doubt that we will see a... 20th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Markets bounce as Leave loses poll lead The Leave campaign’s earlier momentum appears to have stalled over the weekend as referendum campaigning resumed on Sunday, improving sentiment in both UK and global markets. 20th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian interest rates to fall by more than most expect The decision this month by Russia’s central bank to lower interest rates after a hiatus of close to a year has been followed by fairly hawkish comments from policymakers making clear that this does... 20th June 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Governor Rajan to step down, all eyes now on successor The announcement from RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan that he will stand down at the end of his current contract in September is likely to put local financial markets under pressure in the near term... 20th June 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly All about Brexit Worries about contagion from a UK vote to leave the European Union (‘Brexit’) have undermined the prices of riskier assets this past week, including oil and other industrial commodities, while... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed’s rate forecasts veering like a drunken sailor The key US event this week will be Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s semi-annual testimony to Congress. She will be testifying to the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday and the House Financial Services... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Brexit would still shock markets, despite shift in polls While the main talking point in recent days has been “Leave” taking the lead in EU referendum opinion polls, it appears that markets are still far from fully pricing in a Brexit. This suggests that... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Markets’ referendum jitters go global Brexit fears have started to take their toll in global – as well as UK – markets in the past week as opinion polls showed support for Leave rising less than a week before the EU referendum. In... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack China would shrug off a Brexit vote A vote by the UK to leave the EU on Thursday is unlikely to have much impact on China. The economic and financial linkages between the UK and China are small, at least as far as China is concerned. In... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Brexit uncertainty not weighing on consumer spending Consumers appear to have shrugged off EU referendum uncertainty which should help prevent GDP growth from slowing much in Q2. And spending should continue to grow at rates around its historical... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Revisiting the risks from populism Concerns about the emergence of economic populism in Central and Eastern Europe are on the rise once again. This is already weighing on local financial markets and, although it’s not likely to have an... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia need not fear a Brexit The sharp falls in equity prices in Australia in response to the rise in the chance that the UK may vote to leave the EU seem overdone. A Brexit is unlikely to be a disaster for the global economy... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Vote for Brexit may prove to be a damp squib There are good reasons to believe that the market fireworks after a UK vote to leave the EU (‘ Brexit ’) would not be as dramatic as many expect. Indeed, while the initial impact on the pound would... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
