Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Suez Canal & al-Sisi re-elected, Kuwait’s Emir, Qatar budget Houthi attacks on cargo ships in the Red Sea have already caused traffic through the Suez Canal to fall, which will put a dent in Egypt’s revenues and could intensify the country’s external strains... 21st December 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (December 2023) Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The surprising strength this year of the region’s two largest economies, Brazil and Mexico... 20th December 2023 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s belt tightening, Chile votes, LatAm & the Fed The fiscal tightening announced by Argentina's new administration this week is a step in the right direction but, with public discontent set to intensify, the government's commitment to fiscal... 15th December 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Assessing Russia's war hit, change of guard in Poland Analysis by the US Treasury Department published this week gained a lot of attention for highlighting that Russia’s economy is now 5% smaller due to the war and sanctions than it otherwise would have... 15th December 2023 · 9 mins read
China Economics Weekly Officials in denial about extent of structural slowdown Policymakers seem to believe that with a bit of stimulus and a turnaround in sentiment, the economy can get back on a stronger path. While there is some truth to this, we think that officials are... 15th December 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt post-election policy shift? Saudi gigaproject delays Inflation in Egypt slowed further in November but, with President al-Sisi all but certain to be confirmed as the winner of the recent election, policy moves over the coming weeks and months will... 14th December 2023 · 6 mins read
Climate Economics Update IMF climate funds to help “mobilise” private finance The extension of climate-related financing by the IMF to vulnerable emerging market economies (EMs) demonstrates how the Fund is factoring in macroeconomic and financial stability risks stemming from... 11th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update What to make of the RBNZ’s new framework We doubt that the removal of the RBNZ’s employment objective would make much difference to economic outcomes, but forcing the Bank to achieve its inflation target within too short a period of time... 11th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Tusk vs. Glapinski heating up, Russia's policy troubles The debate around whether Polish central bank governor Adam Glapinski could be brought before the State Tribunal and be removed from his post took twists and turns this week. But at this stage the... 8th December 2023 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Debt woes widely known but far from priced in Moody’s downgrade to China’s rating outlook received a muted response in markets. That’s partly because the country’s economic challenges are already widely known. But the bigger picture is that... 8th December 2023 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Focus Do elections really matter for the economy? The economic influence of elections is often overstated. They have only tended to have significant effects if governments have embarked on big structural reforms, interfered with monetary policy or... 7th December 2023 · 25 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s presidential election, Saudi budget approved The result of Egypt’s presidential election that concludes next week is a formality, but once the vote is out of the way, it seems likely that economic policy will shift in a more orthodox direction... 7th December 2023 · 8 mins read
China Economic Outlook Stronger start, weaker end to 2024 China’s economy has regained some strength recently. We expect this to continue into 2024, on the back of support from fiscal policy and a further pick-up in household spending. But with property... 6th December 2023 · 18 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Softer landing, but the runway is longer With higher interest rates taking longer to percolate through the economy, we now think the recession will be shallower and GDP growth will stay weak throughout all of 2024. It’s a softer landing for... 5th December 2023 · 19 mins read
India Economics Update Three key points on the state election results The latest batch of state election results suggests that support for Prime Minister Modi’s BJP remains firmly intact and that it is clearly in the driving seat to secure another victory in next year’s... 4th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Weak data from Korea; Indonesia and Pakistan elections This week’s data dump from Korea suggests the economy weakened at the start of Q4, supporting our view that the tightening cycle is over and that interest rate cuts could come onto the agenda soon. 1st December 2023 · 6 mins read
