Emerging Europe Economics Update Emerging European markets underperform after Brexit vote 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production (May) The sharp fall in industrial production in May suggests that the economy slowed in the second quarter following a solid rise in GDP in Q1. We retain our forecast that the Bank of Japan will announce... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack MENA countries go calling to the IMF The return of several countries to the IMF for financial support over the past month underlines the severity of long-standing balance of payments problems in parts of the region. In Jordan and Tunisia... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s markets calm after Brexit The renminbi has weakened against the US dollar following the UK’s decision last week to leave the EU. But there are no signs of renewed panic about the currency.Meanwhile, equity markets have held... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Markets recover after Brexit jolt Equities and currencies across Latin America tumbled alongside global markets in the immediate aftermath of the UK’s vote to leave the European Union, but have since recovered some (and in a few cases... 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Post-Brexit sell-off unlikely to push up inflation in the EM world The sell-off in the majority of EM currencies in the wake of the Brexit vote is unlikely to have a significant impact on inflation in most of the emerging world. That said, it is likely to cause... 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Oil demand to rise, despite Brexit Disruptions to oil supplies in Canada and Nigeria have been behind most of the rally in oil prices over the past month. However, demand has also been growing strongly and we do not think that Brexit... 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Brexit may not delay the next US rate hike for very long The markets are probably right to price in additional policy easing from the Bank of England and the ECB in the wake of the UK’s vote to leave the EU (‘Brexit’). However, the consensus is almost... 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update After Brexit, will Quitaly be next? Italian opposition to the EU is strong and several forces could cause that hostility to grow. October’s constitutional reform referendum will provide voters with an opportunity to oust the prime... 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch How much has “Brexit” changed prospects for monetary policy? In the immediate aftermath of the UK referendum, central bankers have concentrated on providing verbal reassurance, but they may soon back their words with action. We think the Bank of England will... 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Post-Brexit EM market moves likely to be driven by Fed & China EM financial markets are often hit hard during bouts of investor risk aversion, but most have come through the past few days in reasonable shape. Looking ahead, EMs are more likely to face acute sell... 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (June) June’s fall in euro-zone business and consumer confidence suggests that the euro-zone economy was slowing even before the UK voted to leave the EU. 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Ratings upgrade in Hungary will outweigh potential Brexit fallout We do not see the UK’s vote to leave the EU as having a major effect on the CEE economies and property markets. Indeed, with Hungary likely to be buoyed by a second ratings upgrade later this year, we... 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Jun.) Small business confidence picked up in June and the further improvement predicted for July suggests that manufacturing activity will continue to recover in coming months. 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Brexit volatility won't prompt July rate cut The recent volatility in global financial markets triggered by the UK’s vote to leave the EU is unlikely to prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates from 1.75% to 1.50% at its... 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
