UK Economics Weekly A Goldilocks depreciation? The fall in the pound since the EU vote has been widely presented as a negative development. Not only is it being seen as a general indicator of Brexit vote fall-out, but many forecasters appear to... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Jun.) The plunge in the outlook of today’s Economy Watchers Survey indicates that the stronger yen and Brexit have dealt a serious blow to confidence in Japan. 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Brexit is a local, not global, shock Developments over the past few days have revived concerns about the consequences of Brexit for theglobal economy. But they have not changed our view that the economic impact outside the UK and... 7th July 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Will ‘Brexit’ drive a new bull market in gold? The UK’s decision to vote in favour of leaving the European Union in a nationwide referendum on 23 rd June – or ‘Brexit’ – has already boosted the prices of precious metals. The prospects for both... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC shrugs off Brexit concerns…for now The Polish MPC used this afternoon’s post-meeting press conference to suggest that it was broadly unconcerned about the impact of the UK’s vote to leave the EU on the domestic economy, but we think... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update How has Brexit affected our forecasts? The outcome of the vote has dented the outlook for occupier demand, and as a result we have cut our all-property rental value growth forecasts for the next two years, from 2.9% and 2.4% respectively... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is sterling a good indicator of global Brexit risks? The renewed slide in the value of the pound yesterday has prompted fresh jitters in global financial markets, as well as increased demand for traditional safe havens such as gold and the yen. But... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Don’t panic about the pound While the downward pressure on the pound has increased in response to some adverse post-referendum developments, we have long argued that a substantially lower exchange rate would be an important... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What will the GDP data tell us about underlying conditions? The Q2 GDP data will provide a welcome glimpse into the performance of parts of the service sector where the regular monthly flow of data provides less visibility. But the figures should be handled... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Passage of Goods and Services Tax edging closer Recent changes to the composition of the Rajya Sabha have raised the likelihood that the long-awaited Goods and Services Tax (GST) bill will finally be passed. But there are still sticking points, the... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Brexit vote not a game-changer for world economy It’s early days but we see no reason to change our view that the global economic fallout from the UK referendum result should be minimal. The UKrecovery will probably falter due to heightened... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Germany won’t suffer most from Brexit vote While German exporters are particularly vulnerable to weaker demand from the UK following the Brexit vote, the economy is also well-placed to benefit from any relocation of financial services or... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update FPC announces action to support bank lending Coming after Governor Carney’s initial statement following the referendum to “take all necessary steps to meet its responsibilities for monetary and financial stability”, Project Reassure continued... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Brexit impact will be ultimately positive for euro-zone prime property The commercial construction PMI fell to its lowest level since mid-2009 in June. This highlights the extent to which the uncertainty around the EU referendum was weighing on developers’ activity. The... 4th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update What does the election mean for the economy and markets? The fallout on the economy and financial markets from the uncertain outcome of the Federal election will probably be relatively mild and short-lived and is unlikely to prompt the Reserve Bank of... 4th July 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Brexit vote has a silver lining The price of gold has predictably done well in the wake of the UK’s surprise vote to leave the EU (‘Brexit’). But the real star of the show has been silver, whose price has already jumped by nearly 20... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
