UK Housing Market Outlook Brexit drag on transactions and prices to last until next year A lot has changed since our previous Analyst. Distortions relating to the stamp duty surcharge alongside a weakening economic backdrop kicked the housing market into a lower gear earlier in Q2. And... 2nd August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Gauging the economic hit from Turkey’s coup attempt The attempted military coup in Turkey last month doesn’t appear to have triggered a sharp decline in capital inflows, but there are already signs that the hit to confidence will cause domestic demand... 2nd August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (July) July’s manufacturing PMIs point to a further slowdown in industrial production growth in Central Europe, to around 2% y/y, which could be an early sign of spillovers from the UK’s Brexit vote. However... 1st August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Growth slowed significantly around the vote Data released this week imply that GDP growth ground to a halt in the two months preceding the referendum. And survey indicators suggest that conditions worsened further in the weeks following the... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Lower rates should help lighten the mood While the outcome of the referendum has certainly dampened the sector’s mood, we believe that policymakers’ response should help allay some of the worst fears. We think that the lower exchange rate... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How could fiscal policy be reset? We think new Chancellor Philip Hammond’s fiscal policy “reset” resulting from Brexit will involve some discretionary loosening. This will come on top of automatic stabilisers which will lower receipts... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Jul.) Consumer confidence fell sharply in the weeks following the referendum, led by a drop in perception of the economy’s health. However, the survey was conducted during a period of extreme political... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Turkey coup aside, EMs have become more stable The failed military coup in Turkey has sent local financial markets into a tailspin and re-focused investors’ attention on broader EM political risk. However, political stability in emerging markets... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (July) July’s rise in the euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator suggests that businesses and consumers have so far largely shrugged off the negative economic implications of the UK’s Brexit vote. 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Construction Market Survey (Q2 16) The pace of construction activity fell across the board in the second quarter. That said, skill shortages mean that activity in the sector had been losing momentum for a year, so we would be reluctant... 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Jul. 16) Data from Nationwide suggest that house price growth held broadly steady in the first month after Brexit. But the nature of the data, as well as the fact that other indicators are consistent with... 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jun.) The 4.0% m/m decline in durable goods orders in June, was principally due to a sharp decline in the notoriously volatile commercial aircraft category. Otherwise, the details of the report confirm that... 27th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Sentiment towards Irish property takes a hit, while Hungary shines Investment sentiment toward European commercial property generally remains upbeat according to the RICS Q2 global commercial property survey. While confidence in Hungary jumped again, sentiment has... 27th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Jul.) July’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey paints a fairly dismal picture of the retail sector in the days following the EU referendum. However, the survey hasn’t been an especially reliable guide to the... 27th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish markets start to stabilise Turkish financial markets have started to recoup some of their losses following the failed military coup earlier this month, but we think that the lira in particular is more likely to fall than to... 27th July 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack New president of the Philippines makes encouraging start Investors in the Philippines have responded positively to the marked change inrhetoric of the country’s new president, Rodrigo Duterte. After spooking markets in the run-up to May’s presidential... 27th July 2016 · 1 min read
