Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (July) July’s money and credit data show a pick-up in lending growth, despite concerns about banks’ health and the UK’s vote for Brexit. Nevertheless, the data suggest that inflation will remain weak. 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Corporate bond rate falls won’t save business investment Despite a fall in corporate bond yields since the referendum, we still expect business investment to be the largest near-term casualty of the vote to leave. Indeed, the fall in the pound will increase... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is Japan still haunted by the undead? Japan’s economy remains dominated by old, unproductive firms, while those hoping to create new firms face a range of hurdles. Meanwhile, the country remains relatively isolated from the rest of the... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Political tensions come to the fore Political tensions have re-emerged in a number of frontier market economies in recent weeks, casting a shadow over the economic outlook. The outcome of the recent presidential election in Zambia has... 25th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Shrugging off Brexit worries for now While early post-referendum indicators of consumer spending have been fairly upbeat, spending growth is still set to slow following the vote to leave the EU. Labour market conditions are likely to... 25th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Aug. & Q3) Despite the improvement in todays’ CBI Distributive Trades Survey, the figures still point to a slowdown in the official measure of retail sales growth after July’s strength. 25th August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia peace deal won't change near-term economic outlook According to media reports a final peace deal between the Colombian government and the FARC is likely to be announced later today at 6pm local time. This will be an historic milestone and should... 24th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Regional recovery to disappoint, rates to come down Growth across Emerging Europe is likely to pick up in 2017-18, but it will be softer than most anticipate. While the region’s largest economy, Russia, will return to positive growth in the coming... 24th August 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Aug.) Preliminary survey data for August, which were published today, suggest that economic growth remained slow but steady in advanced economies. Meanwhile, alternative survey evidence for the UK has been... 23rd August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Aug.) The relatively upbeat tone of August’s CBI Industrial Trends Survey gives us another reason to be tentatively optimistic about the extent to which the economy has taken a hit from the referendum... 23rd August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Aug) August’s slight rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI suggests that, while the region has so far weathered the UK’s Brexit vote, economic conditions remain fairly subdued. 23rd August 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Too soon to sound the “all clear” on Brexit risks In the last few days there has been a lively debate in the UK media over whether Brexit ‘Armageddon’ has been avoided. Our view is that it is far too early to say for sure and that sterling in... 22nd August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the jobs recovery about to lose its vigour? On the face of it, last week’s labour market figures provided some further welcome signs that the immediate impact of the Brexit vote on the economy might not be quite as bad as many had feared. The... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: First hard data give some cause for optimism The first raft of official data covering the post-referendum period, released this week, was surprisingly upbeat in the main. Overall, the data add weight to our view that while the economy is set to... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Should we be worried by Germany’s ZEW survey? Most information about Germany implies that the economy has continued to perform well after the UK’s Brexit vote. The main exception is the ZEW survey, which suggests that GDP growth could drop to... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Jul.) July’s public finances figures gave us the first indication of how the vote to leave the EU will slow progress in reducing the deficit over the coming years. But the new Chancellor shouldn’t lose much... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
