UK Data Response Labour Market (Jul./Aug.) Given the lags involved, it’s not particularly surprising that the latest data showed that labour market activity has yet to suffer from the apparent post-referendum slowdown in economic growth. 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus EU prospects threatened by risk of further referendums Since the UK’s Brexit vote, eurosceptic parties elsewhere have increased their calls for referendumson EU or euro membership. While the potential for eurosceptics to gain power and hold votesvaries... 12th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Recession fears continue to ease This week’s data provided further support for our view that the near-term hit to the economy won’t be as severe as many of the pessimistic pre-referendum forecasts. Indeed, while the economy has... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Yields to fall further as monetary policy stays looser for longer The UK’s decision to leave the EU has weakened the economic outlook for the euro-zone and increased expectations that the ECB will keep monetary policy looser for longer. While slower economic growth... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Softer rental growth outlook will be offset by further yield compression In the wake of the UK’s vote to leave the EU, central banks have signalled a looser monetary policy stance ahead. Nevertheless, we expect economic growth to be weaker, which has led us to reduce our... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade & Construction Output (Jul.) The latest post-referendum official figures indicated that the construction sector held up better than expected in July, and the trade deficit narrowed, continuing the recent trend of relatively... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly ASEAN still struggling for purpose The Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), which has just concluded its annual meeting in Laos, has little chance of becoming the kind of single market and production base which could one... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Post-referendum shock starts to wane There are increasing signs that the initial post-referendum shock has begun to recede. With buyer numbers still falling and confidence still shaky, the weakness in transactions will last for several... 7th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production (Jul.) Today’s industrial production figures confirmed the previous survey evidence that the leave vote has had an initial adverse impact on the sector in July. But the surveys point to a rebound in... 7th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Risk of Spain missing its deficit targets is building As Mariano Rajoy would benefit most from another election, his opponents may yet let him form a government. But with the public finances deteriorating and the deadline for the 2017 budget to be... 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Growth slows but full-blown recession should be avoided At first glance, the economy appears to have brushed off the EU referendum. The economy was performing well prior to the vote, with GDP and employment growth both accelerating in Q2. Meanwhile... 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report of Services (Aug.) August’s Markit/CIPS services PMI confirmed that the collapse seen in July was a temporary reaction to the shock of the vote to leave the EU. But we doubt this will prevent the MPC from easing... 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Jul.) & Final PMIs (Aug.) Euro-zone retail sales started Q3 strongly but growth is set to slow in the coming months. Indeed, the downward revision to August’s euro-zone Composite PMI hints at the challenges facing the economy... 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Post-referendum hit eased in August While this week’s data still clearly point to a slowdown in the economy following the leave vote, they also suggest that conditions improved in August following the immediate post-referendum shock... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Fall in sterling already supporting the economy While there are already signs of the inflationary impact of the fall in sterling starting to make its way through the supply chain, the drop appears to be providing some support to the economy. Indeed... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Aug.) August’s construction PMI built on yesterday’s encouraging news from the manufacturing sector. A sharp improvement, recovering most of July’s decline, suggests that confidence in the construction... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
