Latin America Economics Update Trump, the US election and the implications for Latin America Donald Trump’s performance in last night’s first US presidential election debate doesn’t appear to have done himself any favours, but his election in November is still a real possibility. This would... 27th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Trump, Yellen and the Federal Reserve If Donald Trump wins November’s presidential election, there is now a clear possibility that Fed Chair Janet Yellen would resign almost immediately, perhaps even before the mid-December FOMC meeting... 27th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s constitutional referendum poses economic risks The Government confirmed today that the constitutional reform referendum will take place on 4thDecember. We think that a rejection of the reforms is a major risk to the economic outlook. 26th September 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Economics, not elections, the key to US equity performance The outcome of forthcoming elections in the US is unlikely to have a major bearing on the performance of its stock market, if history is a useful guide. Economics will matter more than politics. 26th September 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Would President Trump start a trade war? It is impossible to be sure what Donald Trump would actually do if he became US President but ourbest guess is that he would back away from his most radical proposals on trade policy. And even if he... 26th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How are retailers coping with the National Living Wage? It is almost six months since the introduction of the National Living Wage (NLW) and the initial impact on employment and wages in the retail sector does not appear to be particularly severe. But its... 26th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Sep.) September’s rebound in the German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (BCI) offered hope that the economy remains in good health after the more negative signs from other surveys and hard data. 26th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: More evidence of support from fall in the pound This week brought another wave of robust economic data and further evidence that sterling’s slideseems to be providing a boost for manufacturers. Meanwhile, there have been further mixed signalscoming... 23rd September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB unlikely to follow in Bank of Japan’s footsteps The Bank of Japan’s announcement that it will replace its target for the monetary base with a 0% target for 10-year government bond yields has prompted speculation about whether the ECB might follow... 23rd September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the economy in a Brexit sweet spot? The UK economy may be in a bit of a post-referendum “sweet spot” in which some of the positive developments which we have expected to cushion the impact of the vote – including MPC action and the drop... 23rd September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Sep.) September’s fall in the euro-zone Composite PMI to a 20-month low implies that the already sluggish pace of expansion in the currency union lost further momentum at the end of the quarter. 23rd September 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Myanmar: A six month progress report In the six months since Myanmar’s new civilian government took power, it has made a decent start in addressing some of the country’s problems. However, Myanmar will not fulfil its potential unless the... 23rd September 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is rising real estate debt a cause for concern? Data from the Bank of Japan show that bank lending to real estate companies reached a record high last quarter and, on some measures, property prices have been rising rapidly too. However, broader... 23rd September 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) The fourth straight rise in the manufacturing PMI suggests that the sector continued to take the strong appreciation of the exchange rate in its stride. However, the weakness in price pressures should... 23rd September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Sep.) According to today’s CBI Industrial Trends Survey, there are few signs that the Brexit vote has knocked manufacturing activity off course in Q3. 22nd September 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Government moves a step closer to establishing new MPC The government’s announcement today of the names of three members marks another step towards the creation of a policy-setting monetary policy committee (MPC). The announcement also confirms that the... 22nd September 2016 · 1 min read
