Asia Economics Update Poor health of the king is the key risk to Thai growth outlook The worsening health of the King of Thailand poses a key risk to the country’s economy. His death would plunge the country back into political crisis, which in turn could push the economy into... 10th October 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ethiopia: Political crisis rocks African growth star The government’s decision to establish a state of emergency could worsen Ethiopia’s rolling political crisis. The deteriorating situation risks knocking the country off its current growth trajectory. 10th October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Slowdown in services inflation highlights failure of QQE Recent data suggest that the economic recovery may be a touch stronger than we had been expecting. However, there are no signs that the tight labour market is fuelling price pressures. While the Bank... 10th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: “Hard” Brexit worries hit the pound Markets have been shaken this week by the fallout from the Conservative Party Conference, which revealed that policymakers are set to take the UK down the “hard” Brexit route. By contrast, the... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Election unlikely to cause major shift in fiscal policy At face value, there are substantial differences between the fiscal plans of the two presidential candidates. While Hillary Clinton’s policies would essentially maintain the status quo, Donald Trump’s... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What would a Trump victory mean for Asia? It remains to be seen if Donald Trump would follow through on some of his more protectionist policies if he is elected president of the United States. If he did, then the repercussions for some parts... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production & Trade (Aug.) While August’s industrial production and trade data provided a break from therecent run of positive data, the economy still appeared to weather the Brexit votebetter than most expected in Q3. 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack US election and “Brexit” having little economic impact The upcoming Presidential election does not seem to be having much impact on economic activity either in the US itself or elsewhere. Admittedly, it looks at first sight as if recent movements in... 6th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why Turkey’s economy will struggle The hit to Turkey’s economy from July’s military coup attempt is likely to be short-lived, but even once the impact dissipates, the economy’s large vulnerabilities mean activity will remain sluggish... 6th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Election doesn’t seem to be holding back the economy There is little evidence that the upcoming presidential election played any role in the weakness of economic growth in the first half of this year or, despite the early optimism, what is shaping up to... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What would President Trump mean for Japan? We wouldn’t be overly concerned about a US tariff on Japanese imports should Donald Trump become president, as Japanese manufacturers mostly serve their US customers from their US subsidiaries. By... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Can the construction sector dig itself out of trouble? The first raft of economic data covering the post-referendum period has been fairly robust. But not all sectors have been performing well, with the construction sector still in the doldrums. 3rd October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Still no need to worry about the pound While the pound’s latest dip has partly reflected concerns over the prospect of a “hard Brexit”, thecurrency’s depreciation should continue to cushion the economic impact of the vote to leave the EU. 3rd October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombians reject peace deal, main risks political Colombian voters’ rejection of the government’s peace deal with the FARC rebel group is unlikely to signal an immediate return to violence. And, while it is a significant blow to the economy’s medium... 3rd October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan Q3 According to today’s Tankan survey, conditions in the manufacturing sector remained the weakest they have been seen the launch of QQE, while conditions in non-manufacturing continued to worsen. The... 3rd October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Is a “Hard Brexit” on the cards? This week provided some further indications that policymakers are leaning towards a harder form of Brexit package than initially anticipated. However, the UK at least appears to be headed into... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
