Global Economics Focus Can we forecast elections and referendums? The failure of opinion polls or bookmakers to predict the UK’s June vote to leave the EU caught many investors by surprise. However, both polls and betting markets have a reasonable track record in... 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: is Macri already a busted flush? The Argentine government’s recent upward revision to its 2017 budget deficit forecast has added to concerns that President Macri’s reform agenda is already starting to slow after less than a year in... 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Would a Clinton win really be a boon for the stock market? The conventional wisdom is that a Clinton administration would represent a near seamless continuation of the current Obama administration, but that view could be under-estimating the potential for a... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Rise in French unemployment is a worrying sign The recent increase in French unemployment seems unlikely to be reversed rapidly. And while a new government may be elected next year promising job-boosting reforms, its success will be limited by... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Will global demand remain weak? Advanced economies have been suffering from weak underlying demand, partly due to a mix of demographic and technological changes. Looking ahead, there is some scope for a rebound in private investment... 17th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook Housing market activity to recover next year The housing market is starting to recover from the initial shock of the Brexit vote. But with prices already high, we don’t expect a return to business as usual. Rather, we think house price growth... 17th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: A second Scottish independence referendum? Another dramatic week in the Brexit saga saw the pound fall further, bond yields rise, the chance of another Scottish independence referendum before long build and Marmite almost get pulled off the... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Construction Output (Aug.) August’s construction figures suggest that the sector is dragging on GDP growth. What’s more, construction’s fortunes are unlikely to improve much in coming quarters as the Brexit vote weighs on the... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of Ukraine’s recent recovery Ukraine’s economy has seen rare good news over the past month as the IMF released additional funding after a long delay and recent data showed that growth strengthened. Nonetheless, there has been no... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Weathering the Brexit storm The evidence so far has supported our view that the immediate economic impact of the vote to leave the EU would not be as severe as most had expected. And although there are many challenges ahead –... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Surge in labour force soon to run out of steam Japan’s effective labour force has continued to grow despite a continued fall in the working-age population as more women have entered the workforce and baby-boomers have continued to work into older... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update King’s death casts shadow over Thailand The death of Thailand’s highly-revered king will plunge the country into a state of mourning, and also deep political uncertainty. There is a risk that political tensions flare up, triggering a... 13th October 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Watch What would a Trump victory mean for metals prices? We don’t pretend to know how the political race in the US will develop or who will eventually win the presidency, but in this Metals Watch we aim to shed some light on the potential impact on metals... 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update What might the US election mean for energy commodities? The initial uncertainty created by what would now be a shock win for Donald Trump in November’s US presidential election would surely be negative for the prices of industrial commodities, including... 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Oct.) October’s rise in the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment is broadly encouraging, although the index still points to a slowdown in German GDP growth. 11th October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Sep.) Allowing for seasonal factors, the Economy Watchers Survey continued to improve in September. However, “current conditions” still point to falling industrial output. 11th October 2016 · 1 min read
