Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Jordan’s tourism sector hit hard by spillovers of war

Jordan’s economy has been among the hardest hit from the indirect spillovers of the war in Gaza. While severe balance of payments of strains are likely to be avoided, GDP growth will suffer as the key...

14th August 2024 · 4 mins read

Asia Rapid Response

Ousting of Thai PM could spell bad news for the economy

Thailand's Constitutional Court today dismissed Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, a move that could trigger further political instability and bodes poorly for the country’s economy.

14th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Japan Economics Update

​​Kishida’s resignation won’t affect economic outlook​

Prime Minister Kishida’s resignation is hardly a surprise. At this stage, it’s very difficult to predict who will succeed him and the ruling LDP will probably remain in power for the foreseeable...

14th August 2024 · 3 mins read

India Economics Update

What Sino-Indian relations tell us about global fracturing

Signs of a thaw in frosty relations between India and China don’t point to a fundamental realignment in India’s position in a fracturing global economy. But they highlight a growing theme of some EMs...

13th August 2024 · 5 mins read

Commodities Update

History rhyming, but won’t repeat, for EU natural gas

Developments in Ukraine have once again emerged as a key driver of EU natural gas prices. But a combination of lower gas use and the sourcing of alternative supplies in Europe means that the situation...

12th August 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Weekly

EU natural gas prices chart their own course

It was no surprise to see the global commodity price index fall and rise alongside the contortions in equity markets this week. But commodity prices have not all been in the same boat; whereas some...

9th August 2024 · 4 mins read

Africa Economics Update

SSA protests will worsen public finance strains

Protests that originated in Kenya have spread to neighbouring Uganda and as far afield as Nigeria. The common theme of a weak economic backdrop, endemic corruption and fiscal fears means the region is...

7th August 2024 · 4 mins read

Asia Economics Update

Bangladesh: the economic fallout from the unrest

The outbreak of political violence and the sudden resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has rocked Bangladesh today. But provided that peace and stability is restored relatively soon, the...

5th August 2024 · 3 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Venezuela: rig and repress

The declaration that incumbent Nicolás Maduro won Venezuela’s presidential election has been met with protests and international pressure for a full account of the results. But our sense at this stage...

2nd August 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Geopolitical tensions ratchet up risks for Israel

An escalation of the conflict in the Middle East risks delaying Israel’s economic recovery even further, adding to pressure on the country's strained public finances, and pushing up risk premia on...

2nd August 2024 · 10 mins read

Global Markets Focus

The US election and financial markets three months out

Financial markets have largely taken the dramatic events in the US presidential race over the past month in stride. While the race now appears to be back to a coin toss, the prospect of a second Trump...

1st August 2024 · 18 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Tensions ratcheting up, Egypt-IMF, Saudi Q2 data

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are on the brink of boiling over after Israel’s assassinations of high-ranking Hezbollah and Hamas officials this week. It remains to be seen what the response...

1st August 2024 · 8 mins read

US Economics Focus

Trumponomics: Rhetoric versus reality

If implemented in full on day one, Donald Trump’s trade, immigration and fiscal policies would together be stagflationary. We suspect that he will be forced to water down his plans, however, and it...

31st July 2024 · 14 mins read

Global Markets Focus

EZ spreads on different paths after French election

We have revised down our forecasts for government bond spreads in Spain and Portugal, but we continue to think that those in France, as well as in Italy and Belgium, are more likely to rise than fall.

31st July 2024 · 14 mins read

China Rapid Response

China Politburo Meeting (Jul. 2024)

The readout of the Politburo’s latest triannual meeting on economic affairs has just been published by state media. It was dovish in tone and adds to recent evidence that the leadership believes more...

30th July 2024 · 2 mins read