US Economics Update Fed on track for December rate hike As widely expected, the Fed left interest rates unchanged at this week’s FOMC meeting, but it appears to be intent on hiking interest rates at the upcoming December meeting. Nevertheless, next week’s... 2nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Failed debt plan another blow to President Buhari The Nigerian senate’s decision to block the president’s borrowing plans may preclude an infrastructure-focused stimulus plan. The bill’s failure highlights the importance of boosting domestic non-oil... 2nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What would be the global fallout from a Trump victory? A Trump victory in the US elections next Tuesday may send shockwaves through financial markets, at least temporarily. But the economic consequences for the world as a whole would be less dramatic. 2nd November 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Disputed election result would introduce new uncertainty The presidential election race is now too close to call, raising the possibility of a near-tied election result that would be aggressively disputed by one or both of the candidates. Under those... 2nd November 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Government likely to miss privatisation target With more than half of the fiscal year over, the government’s aim of raising nearly INR600bn through asset sales of various state-owned companies looks unrealistic. Faced with a number of state... 2nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi finance minister’s departure won’t mark end of austerity The decision to replace Saudi Arabia’s finance minister is unlikely to mark a shift in the Kingdom’s approach to dealing with the fallout from lower oil prices. While the outgoing finance minister had... 1st November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Little risk to growth from Iceland’s election The next Icelandic government may be an unconventional one, but improvements to Iceland’s public finances and external position since the crisis mean that there is little risk to economic growth. 31st October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Was Q3 as good as it gets for global growth? We estimate that world GDP growth accelerated slightly in the third quarter, due to the ongoing policyled rebound in China and a pick-up in activity in the US. However, the expansion will probably... 31st October 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korean scandal a blow for the president, but not the economy The corruption scandal which has engulfed Korea over the weekend is a major blow to the authority of President Park Geun-hye. The economic impact, however, is likely to prove quite small. 31st October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Lat Am central banks turning more dovish Central banks in several countries in Latin America are turning increasingly dovish. Policymakers in Brazil cut interest rates this month on the back of another drop in inflation and further (gradual)... 31st October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Bleak forecasts proved unfounded This week’s economic data brought confirmation that the immediate economic impact of the vote to leave the EU has not been nearly as severe as many had initially expected and gives us reason to be... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed likely to delay rate hike until December The markets are convinced that the Fed will stand pat at this week’s FOMC meeting, which concludes on Wednesday, and will instead raise interest rates at the final policy meeting of the year in mid... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Political risk on the rise in South East Asia There is little sign that the death of the King of Thailand or the increasingly erratic behaviour of President Duterte of the Philippines is, so far at least, having much of an impact on the economy... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Are political attacks on central banks just “noise”? Politicians have made increasingly strident attacks on central banks in many countries recently. But we doubt that these criticisms will lead to significant revisions to monetary policy regimes... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela: PDVSA bond swap tinkering around the edges The restructuring of the short term dollar debt of Venezuela’s state-owned oil company has reduced the risk of default over the next twelve months, but only at the margin. What’s more, it has added to... 27th October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Canada caught in the global backlash against free trade The potential collapse of Canada’s Comprehensive Economic Trade Agreement (CETA) with the European Union would not be a big economic blow, since estimates suggested that even the long-term boost to... 27th October 2016 · 1 min read
