Emerging Markets Economics Update First thoughts on the US election fallout The sell-off in EM financial markets in the wake of Donald Trump’s victory in the US election has been swift but policymakers in most countries will look through the initial volatility – only central... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Oct.) Allowing for seasonal factors, the Economy Watchers Survey climbed to a ten-month high in October. However, the index remains consistent with sluggish activity in the manufacturing sector. 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Clinton win looking increasingly likely Going into today’s presidential election, Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton appears to have established a solid three to four point lead in the polls over Republican rival Donald Trump but, given... 8th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Final thoughts on the day of the US presidential election A victory for Hillary Clinton in today’s presidential election is now heavily discounted. As a result, it would trigger far less of a response in the markets than a surprise win for Donald Trump. In... 8th November 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update What will the US election mean for the Nordic and Swiss economies? The importance of international trade to the Nordics and Switzerland, as well as the franc’s role as a safe haven, mean that the outcome of the US election is potentially important to the region. This... 8th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What would a Trump victory mean for Asia? The Philippines, followed by Taiwan and Korea, stand out as the countries in Asia with most to lose inthe event Donald Trump is elected as the next president of the United States. 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How will the outcome of the US election affect the dollar? Whoever wins the US presidential election, the recent uneven performance of the US dollar is likely to continue. If – as seems increasingly likely – Hillary Clinton emerges victorious, we would expect... 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update How would Mexican policymakers respond to a Trump victory? If Donald Trump prevails in tomorrow’s US presidential election, our sense is that Mexican policymakers’ initial response would be to hike interest rates by 100-200bp at an emergency central bank... 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Infrastructure bank will only create more bureaucracy The Liberal government’s plan to create a national infrastructure bank is a recipe for greater bureaucracy rather than a remedy for improving longer-term economic prospects. Existing public agencies... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: High-court ruling may delay, not cancel, Brexit Thursday’s High Court ruling on Article 50 is unlikely to prevent Brexit from happening, but it raises the chance that the start of the process gets delayed. Moreover, just as markets were looking... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Uncertainty will persist well past election day This week’s presidential election is now too close to call. Even in the aftermath of the FBI Director’s letter to Congress a week last Friday, Hillary Clinton still appears to hold a slim lead in the... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is Italy now most likely to leave the euro-zone? According to the Sentix investor survey, Italy is now the most likely country to leave the euro-zone in the next 12 months. While we think that Italy remaining in the currency union is still the more... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update GST begins to take shape Confirmation that a consensus has been reached on the various rates of the new Good and Services Tax (GST) marks another important step towards its implementation. A multi-tiered GST is far from... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Markets need not worry about Trump too much Should Donald Trump pull off a surprise victory in Tuesday’s US Presidential election, equities, bond yields, commodity prices and the Australian and New Zealand dollars would probably all fall. But... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Domestic risks to Europe easily trump the US election A Trump victory in next week’s US election could prompt an unwelcome appreciation of the euro exchange rate, but we suspect that this would be short-lived. What’s more, other effects on euro-zone... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Trump & the Mexican peso: how low can you go? The likely market sell-off in response to a victory for Donald Trump next week could push the Mexican peso to as low as 25/$. What happens to the peso beyond the initial sell-off would depend upon... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
