US Economics Update Fed’s Yellen stalls for time, but December rate hike coming Chair Janet Yellen’s remarkably bland prepared congressional testimony today did nothing to change our view that the Fed will hike interest rates at the upcoming mid-December FOMC meeting. Despite... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus World trade in the Trump era The election of Donald Trump is the clearest expression so far of the growing anti-globalisation sentiment across advanced economies. Initially at least, we think that his bark will prove to be worse... 16th November 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Could the RCEP compensate for the demise of the TPP? The potential benefits for Japan from the proposed RCEP trade deal in Asia are similar in scale to those that might have been achieved under the TPP. But they are not substitutes for each other: gains... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea’s political crisis deepens Korea’s political crisis has continued to deepen and looks likely to drag on, possibly for months. For the economy though, little has changed. The outlook was already difficult, with a lame duck... 14th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Trump win pushes bond yields higher Donald Trump’s victory has exacerbated the upward movement in Treasury yields, pushing 10-year UK gilt yields higher too. Meanwhile, market participants have revised up their expectations for official... 14th November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Political drama will only intensify In this Watch we argue that political tensions surrounding South African President Jacob Zuma will not ease following the embattled president’s victory in yesterday’s vote of no confidence. They will... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Picking apart the post-Trump sell-off The sell-off in EM markets following Donald Trump’s victory appears to have been driven by a general rise in investor risk aversion, rather than specific concerns over a shift towards greater trade... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Trump helps sterling find floor Today’s figures confirmed the indications from the surveys that the leave vote is starting to sap the jobs recovery of its previous strength. 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Commodities swing wildly on Trump victory Although the prices of industrial commodities initially plunged and gold rose on the news of Donald Trump’s victory in the US election, sentiment reversed very quickly as the President-elect Trump... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Trump win could still be bad for Canada The rebound in financial markets following Donald Trump’s conciliatory acceptance speech is a positive sign for Canada’s economy. But his personal volatility and still potentially harsh views on trade... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will Trump’s stimulus boost the world economy? Since Tuesday’s election, financial markets have been buoyed by hopes that Donald Trump will unleash a huge fiscal stimulus. We think a significantly higher US budget deficit is now likely, which may... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Five questions (and answers) about Trump and Asia Donald Trump’s surprise election victory has created a great deal of uncertainty for the region. In this Weekly, we answer five key questions. 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Where is political risk greatest? Last week’s US election result raised the question of where the next political shock might be. The popularity of far-right candidates and forthcoming major elections make France and the Netherlands... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Taking stock of the reaction to Trump Financial markets in Mexico have slumped since Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election was confirmed on Wednesday, but losses in many other emerging markets (EMs) have so far not been... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What are President Trump’s options on NAFTA? The wholesale renegotiation of NAFTA that Donald Trump talked about on the campaign trail would require approval by Congress and seems unlikely to happen. But President Trump will have broad powers to... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines to keep interest rates unchanged for some time yet The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) surprised nobody with its decision to leave its main policy rate on hold earlier today at 3.0%. Looking ahead, with inflation set to remain low and growth... 10th November 2016 · 1 min read
