India Economics Update What to expect in 2017 In our first Watch of 2017, we outline the prospects for India’s economy over the coming 12 months. The government’s demonetisation measures will lead to some weakness at the beginning of the year... 3rd January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Possibility of “transitional” deal gains further traction There are indications that the Government may be moving away from the recent “soft” Brexit rhetoric this week. But given the growing signs that it is also considering some sort of “transitional”... 23rd December 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Reform agenda takes off in 2016 2016 will be remembered as the year that Prime Minister Modi finally began to deliver on promises of much-needed economic reform. However, with a number of state elections due to take place over the... 21st December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Nexit is not next, but Dutch voters still pose threat to EU There is little chance of March’s Dutch general election resulting in a referendum on EU membership. But the shift in political sentiment towards euroscepticism may derail EU policymaking in other... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: More cause for optimism but price pressures grow This week has brought further indications that the Government is leaning towards a soft(ish) form of Brexit and some sort of transitional arrangement. Meanwhile, the economy has continued to hold up... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will political risks halt the euro-zone recovery? Rising euroscepticism and a packed election timetable next year mean that there is a significant risk that the euro-zone breaks up. Even in our central scenario in which the currency union holds... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: political success in an economy on the cusp of recovery Ghana’s recent election is, first and foremost, a ringing political success. On the economic front, we doubt that the election will trigger a sharp change in policy. But given that Ghana’s economy was... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update What to expect in 2017 and beyond Donald Trump’s surprise win in the Presidential election has introduced uncertainty across a number of policy dimensions, but the likelihood of a significant fiscal stimulus next year points to a pick... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Disappointing end to a painful year The latest figures from across Africa suggest that most economies in the region continued to perform poorly at the end of 2016. Activity data from South Africa suggest that the region’s most... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) The manufacturing PMI was the highest in December in almost a year and supports our view that the economy continued to expand at a robust pace this quarter. 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q4) While firms’ capital spending plans remain much weaker than in previous years, the rebound in the headline index of today’s Tankan should encourage the Bank of Japan to refrain from further easing. 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Has Italy’s new PM been handed a poisoned chalice? Italy’s new Prime Minister has two major challenges ahead of him – reforming the electoral system and managing the banking crisis – both of which could spell disaster for his party at the next... 12th December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack The tide for the yen has turned The Bank of Japan’s favourite gauge of underlying price pressures remains just a touch above zero. However, spare capacity is narrowing and growth in part-time pay has started to pick up. What’s more... 12th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Supreme Court won’t delay Article 50 Although we won’t know the outcome of this week’s Supreme Court hearing until (probably) January, whichever way it goes, the Government may still be able to trigger Article 50 by March 31st. That said... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response UoM Consumer Confidence (Dec.) The rise in the University of Michigan measure of consumer confidence in December, to its highest level in almost two years, suggests that the post-election rebound in sentiment has been sustained. It... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly What explains the manufacturing sector’s decline? Despite claims that China is to blame for the five million manufacturing jobs lost since 2001, the evidence suggests that rapid productivity gains, driven by rising automation, have also played a... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
