Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Income recession to income boom If the falls in the various measures of national income in Australia in 2015 constituted an income recession, then the surge in the fourth quarter of last year looks like a mini income boom. Whether... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Next French President won’t enjoy carte blanche None of the three frontrunners in this spring’s French presidential election looks likely to be able to depend on majority support in Parliament should they be elected. This will weaken their capacity... 2nd March 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus Poised for a resurgence? The government’s demonetisation measures have caused growth in India to slow but the economy is set to recover as consumption and investment rebound. Longer-term prospects have also been boosted as... 2nd March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Win or lose, populists will have a big impact on policy There is a significant chance of populist, eurosceptic parties entering government in Italy. While populists’ chances in Germany, France and the Netherlands are more limited, they may nevertheless... 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Capital Expenditure (Q4) Today’s capital spending figures suggest that non-residential investment was stronger last quarter than initially reported. Overall GDP growth may therefore be revised up from +0.2% q/q to +0.3% q/q... 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Irish economy will continue to outperform We doubt that Prime Minister Enda Kenny’s apparently imminent resignation will have a major macroeconomic effect. More generally, the economy looks well placed to continue growing strongly. 27th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will the UK’s “exit bill” thwart Brexit negotiations? Once Article 50 has been triggered, one of the first things that will be discussed is the UK’s “divorce settlement” – or the degree to which the UK will cover its share of pending EU commitments and... 27th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Net migration from the EU falls after Brexit vote There have been growing signs that some EU nationals are reacting to the vote to leave the EU by either returning to their country of citizenship or by obtaining residency rights in the UK. Meanwhile... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update “Macronomics” could put France on the right track French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron last night confirmed that he intends to cut overall government spending, boost public investment and overhaul the labour market. These are all long... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What next for Japan’s free trade agreements? With the writing on the wall for the TPP, Japan’s government believes that its next best bet would be a bilateral deal with the US. In principle, this could generate sizeable benefits by opening Japan... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update The importance of state elections The raft of state elections currently taking place in India is likely to have an important bearing on economic policy at the local level. But more significant, the outcome of the state elections – in... 23rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Would a victory for Germany’s SPD reshape Europe? A German government led by the Social Democratic Party could embark on a modest fiscal stimulus at home and show more fiscal leniency to countries such as Greece. But its policies would be unlikely to... 21st February 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) The manufacturing PMI in February was the highest it has been since 2014’s sales tax hike and suggests that activity in the sector continued to expand at a strong pace this quarter. What’s more, the... 21st February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Parliamentary “ping-pong” unlikely to delay A50 While the possibility of Parliamentary “ping-pong” suggests that a triggering of Article 50 at the EU summit on 9th & 10th March is unlikely, the Prime Minister’s self-imposed deadline of the end of... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly EC’s optimistic forecasts underestimate key risks In its latest economic forecasts published last week, the European Commission (EC) provided a fairly upbeat outlook for the euro-zone economy, expecting it to sustain its current pace of growth in... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Immigration easing labour shortages Immigration to Japan is starting to make a meaningful difference in its labour market: the number of foreign workers rose by nearly 20% last year. With Japanese people more accepting of immigration... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
