Europe Economics Update Are things finally looking up for Portugal? Portugal’s anti-austerity Government has continued to implement economic reforms and cut its budget deficit, which reduces the risk of sanctions from the EU. But major challenges still lie ahead. 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Wage growth picking up Japan’s unemployment rate is the lowest it has been since the mid-1990s and the job-to-applicant ratio is approaching its bubble year peak. Regular wages are rising at the fastest pace in years, and... 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Dutch election likely to result in small fiscal boost The PVV’s declining support suggests that is now even less likely to govern after the Dutch election. But the eventual governing parties will still respond to the populists by loosening fiscal policy. 13th March 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update BJP victory in Uttar Pradesh brightens reform prospects The landslide victory for Prime Minister Modi and the BJP in the Uttar Pradesh state assembly election suggests that political goodwill towards the ruling national party remains intact, and boosts... 13th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Article 50 notification set for end of the month The Lords’ amendments to the Article 50 Bill are all but certain to push back the date of notification to the end of the month. Meanwhile, expectations of tighter monetary policy abroad rather than... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will four more years of Abenomics make a difference? Prime Minister Abe is set to become Japan’s longest serving Prime Minister and could plausibly now serve until 2021. While his government had some early successes in removing roadblocks to stronger... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Spring Budget 2017: OBR ties Hammond’s hands The Office for Budget Responsibility’s caution on both the economic and fiscal outlook limited the Chancellor’s room for manoeuvre in this last spring Budget. But he still has a little room to loosen... 8th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s pension reforms: five key questions With Brazil returning from carnival, thoughts are shifting back to President Temer’s domestic policy agenda and, in particular, the prospects for planned pensions reform over the coming months that... 8th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Talking the talk Nigeria’s Economic Growth & Recovery Plan (which was released this afternoon) provides a refreshingly honest analysis of the country’s economic problems & outlines a variety of sensible reforms. We’re... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Feb.) February’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor added to other evidence that the hit to real consumer spending growth from higher inflation is now starting to materialise. 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea’s political crisis approaching crucial phase Korea’s political crisis is approaching a key phase as the Constitutional Court prepares to rule on whether to officially impeach President Park Geun-hye. Park’s formal impeachment would increase the... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Will the Bank of Japan have to start tightening soon? Japan’s economy has performed well recently and inflation is set to rise sharply soon. But the spike in inflation won’t last and, with inflation expectations no higher now than when the Bank of Japan... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Economics more important than politics for US equities The fate of the US stock market tends to be determined by economics rather than by politics. As a result, it should not be surprising that shareholders have shrugged off both Trump’s recent spat with... 6th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: How serious is the threat of Scottish independence? Renewed calls for a second referendum on Scottish independence, and the House of Lords’ amendments to the Article 50 Bill are stumbling blocks to Theresa May’s Brexit plans, but we doubt that either... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What if Italy left the euro-zone? If Italy left the euro-zone, we think that its new currency would depreciate by about 30% against the euro. In the year or so following its exit, the economy would probably contract sharply, but we... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus S. Africa: Growth to accelerate, but recovery won’t last After a grim 2016, growth in South Africa will recover more quickly than most expect, reaching 2.0% in 2017 and 1.7% in 2018. But this would still be a woeful outcome for a country at South Africa’s... 3rd March 2017 · 2 mins read
