Africa Economics Update South Africa: Rumours of cabinet reshuffle rock rand Were Pravin Gordhan to actually be removed, we think that the rand could fall by another 5% against the USD. Even if he receives another stay of execution, economic factors will cause the currency to... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Exit bill to prove key point of contention With the Government set to formally notify the EU of the UK’s wish to leave the bloc next week, some preliminary detail has emerged on how the EU will approach negotiations. It is expected to insist... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Demonetisation impact wearing off The latest economic data for India suggest that the most acute impact from the government’s demonetisation measures has now passed. Both the manufacturing and services PMI readings for February came... 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Can Carrie Lam solve Hong Kong’s problems? There is little doubt that Carrie Lam, the former head of Hong Kong’s civil service and the candidate preferred by Beijing, will be chosen on Sunday as the city’s next chief executive. But she won’t... 22nd March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spanish growth to slow regardless of politics Spain’s political situation is fragile and we cannot rule out a snap election being called this year. But regardless of the politics, deteriorating economic fundamentals mean that economic growth will... 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack South Korea elections: key names to watch Political campaigning in South Korea ahead of presidential elections due on 9th May is now well underway. Given the extent of public anger against ousted former president Park Geun-hye and her ruling... 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Would an early General Election sap the economy’s strength? Political uncertainty is back on the agenda, with speculation of an early General Election and confirmation that Article 50 will be triggered on March 29th coming on top of the renewed threat of a... 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Sterling weathers call for indy ref 2 In the week Article 50 received Royal Assent, sterling halted its latest decline despite renewed calls for a second Scottish independence referendum. While the referendum announcement coincided with a... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What is the state of play as election season kicks off? Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte described last week’s election as the “quarter finals to beat the wrong sort of populism”. The forthcoming French presidential election will be the semi-final, and the... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What to expect from Turkey’s constitutional referendum The focus ahead of Turkey’s constitutional referendum, taking place in a month’s time, has been on the political ramifications, but relatively little has been said about the economic impact. Our sense... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Dutch ado about nothing? The next Dutch government is likely to be a centre-right coalition with a broadly similar stance towards the EU as before and a slightly looser fiscal policy. But the balance of power in the... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Premier Li signals lower emphasis on growth Premier Li Keqiang’s remarks to the press today following the conclusion of the National People’s Congress reinforce our view that policymakers will allow a renewed slowdown in economic growth this... 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is the Dutch election a litmus test for the rest of Europe? We suspect that a better-than-expected result for eurosceptic and populist parties in today’s Dutch general election would have little direct effect on support for eurosceptic parties elsewhere. 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will Article 50 trigger Brexit pain? While the imminent triggering of Article 50 will bring Brexit a step closer and could prompt a rise in uncertainty, there are still good reasons to expect the economy to remain resilient. 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Officials remain too cautious on structural reforms The latest reports and official comments from the National People’s Congress suggest that progress on reducing overcapacity and state sector reforms will remain sluggish this year. Unless policymakers... 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What to make of the renewed bid for Scottish Independence Scotland’s First Minister and SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon’s announcement that she is beginning the process to enact a second referendum on Scottish independence before the UK exits the EU far from... 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
