Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Consulate strike and the threat of a Iran-Israel war

The Israeli strike on Iran’s consulate in Syria this week has ratcheted up tensions in the region and the threat of an outright conflict between Iran and Israel is at its highest since the war in Gaza...

4th April 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Turkey election: AKP defeat = good news for investors

The strong showing for the opposition in Turkey’s local elections on Sunday highlights the extent of voter frustration with high inflation and we think that it should be interpreted as a positive for...

2nd April 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

MNB easing to slow further, Turkey election preview

The post-meeting communications from Hungary’s central bank (MNB) this week support our view that the pace of interest rate cuts will slow even further over the coming months. Meanwhile, Turkey’s...

28th March 2024 · 10 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt’s path to faster growth, Houthis and Gulf oil output

Egypt’s recent policy shift has been met with a lot of optimism among investors and will likely see its new IMF deal approved by the Executive Board tomorrow. But the policies involve some near-term...

28th March 2024 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook

A soft 2024, but faster growth around the corner

Low oil output in the Gulf will constrain GDP growth over the first half of this year. But as this reverses, growth will pick up and by more than most expect. Elsewhere in Middle East and North Africa...

25th March 2024 · 20 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Tusk’s first 100 days, CBRT’s pre-election surprise

The new Polish government (which marks its 100 day milestone today) has successfully unblocked EU funds and delivered a wave of optimism that has helped Poland's financial markets outperform those in...

22nd March 2024 · 7 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Political risk in Vietnam; SBP’s hawkish hold

One of Vietnam’s key appeals to foreign investors is its political stability relative to other low-income countries in the region. Given this, the unexplained ousting of President Vo Van Thuong of...

22nd March 2024 · 8 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Election countdown, our new EM risk indicators

We've entered the final few weeks before India's general election kicks off. All the signs point to another win for Prime Minister Modi's BJP but what really matters for the economy is whether the...

22nd March 2024 · 3 mins read

India Economics Focus

The general election: what is at stake?

The biggest democratic exercise in history will shortly take place as India votes in its general election, starting on 19 th April. Given client interest, we are resending our Election Primer, first...

19th March 2024 · 12 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Putin 5.0: what to look out for now

Vladimir Putin secured a record victory in Russia’s presidential election over the weekend. The focus now will be on whether this emboldens Putin to devote more resources to the war effort, whether...

18th March 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

The good and bad of Egypt’s policy shift, Aramco transfer

Last week’s policy moves in Egypt have raised concerns about a fresh surge in inflation, particularly after the jump recorded in the February CPI data. But while inflation may increase again in March...

14th March 2024 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Focus

What would Trump 2.0 mean for Mexico?

The impact of a second Trump presidency on Mexico’s economy would depend to a large extent on whether the USMCA deal remains intact or Mexico finds itself subject to US import tariffs. If the latter...

12th March 2024 · 15 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Trump 2.0 poses new headwinds for Canada

The key risk for Canada’s economy from the US presidential election is that a Trump administration could pull out of the USMCA, leaving Canada subject to any US import tariffs. To avoid that, Canada...

11th March 2024 · 5 mins read

US Economics Weekly

Falling inflation still likely to prompt Fed cuts soon

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony struck a notably less hawkish tone than we have heard recently from some of his colleagues. And with the economic data this week providing little...

8th March 2024 · 8 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Sheinbaum’s 100 commitments, inflation worries

The recently-unveiled policy plans from Claudia Sheinbaum, the frontrunner to become Mexico’s next president, are aimed at building on President López Obrador’s legacy, but her proposals are likely to...

8th March 2024 · 7 mins read